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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV I don't look at gross profit only, i look at profit to shareholders after all maintenance expenses like SBC and also capital required to grow the business. I will probably make enemies because of this hardline. On that metric the business is losing money and you'd think by now at their (9k locations?) scale they'd be a lot more profitable. Understanding how much a company currently generates in profits should be simple to understand and not require elaborate gymnastics
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

ARR growth rate is stable finally, but what about their profitability? Think about how easy it is to game ARR and how many company's did successfully before collapsing. not sure it will happen to $evlv, but it does provide a warning to over relying on company derived KPIs, especially if that company has had a history of changing metrics, changing managements, and being successfully sued for providing inaccurate marketing material. Profitability is not improving and that is not a good sign for their LT goal you can be a company that grows revenues and expands margins, you can be a company that grows revenues but contracts margins, you can be a company that grows margins but contracts revenues. you can be a company that loses revenues and margins at the same time. which one is evolv $evlv bulls will argue that we should wait for another quarter or two before we see an inflection in profits. that eventually they will scale into their business. i'm afraid to say that i'm suspicious that profits will materialize in any meaningful way ever. if the technology was so transformative and so much better than competitors, and that they have thousands and thousands of customers already, then why is it still losing money?
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Only twenty minutes until the greatest media company in the world, Saga Communications $SGA, has their Q3 earnings call. Can’t wait to hear a stupid and pointless story about how Mr. Forgy bought a footlong hotdog and shoved it down his throat back in 1983 while listening to the radio in his car that peels down some Ohio shithole road. Listen guys, Saga is the greatest media company in the world. They sell gift cards and banner ads on Wordpress HTMl websites (digital media). Everyone listens to the radio you know? It’s like 95% of the population listens to the radio. Greatest media company in the world folks. Get ready for the earnings call. This company is a monster.

Investor Letters

All letters

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
SFM · long

Sprouts Farmers Market

Sprouts Farmers Market benefits from GLP-1 adoption, scrutiny of ultra-processed foods and dietary restrictions driving demand for natural…

SFM $4.7B
Value Investors Club 1 click

AI turned my Report into a Video

Google’s NotebookLM turned a 30-page Douglas Dynamics report into an 8-minute video, while Custom GPTs screen earnings transcripts for…

PLOW $873M
Hidden Gems Investing

Alta Fox PBH CN Presentation

Premium Brands Holdings faces margin expansion and free-cash-flow growth as a six-year investment cycle ends, while Alta Fox says its…

PBH $2.1B
Research - Alta Fox Capital 2 clicks

Buybacks Below Net Cash

Angstrom Technologies trades 26% below net cash and 50% of NCAV, with no debt, 7.7x earnings and ongoing buybacks despite limited…

AGTT $5.1M
Deep Value Insights

Short CNM

Core & Main faces a short thesis centered on the risks in its roll-up strategy.

CNM $8.5B
Shallow Dives 1 click

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