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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Fuel Tech $FTEK, the power plant pollution-control company, trades closer to its book value than to my updated sum-of-the-parts (SOTP). At $1.35/share, $FTEK trades 13.4% above its $1.19/share book value, and the market values the operating business at $14.3M ($42.1M market cap less $27.8M of cash and investments), ~0.5x TTM sales. Updating my August SOTP for the lower cash balance gives $1.65-2.10/share, 22-56% above today’s price, still with nothing for the data center pipeline or DGI (its technology for dissolving oxygen into water).
@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Some initial $KBR RemainCo thoughts: Investors thought they were getting a ~20% margin business in STS which turns out to be 10% after corp costs + normalized JV earnings... some of this was expected, but looks like a bigger reset From that lower base, it's expected to grow 10% annually with 12%+ margins and minimal capex which is great No formal 2027 guidance but implying $425M EBITDA and $3.5B revenue (12% margin)... biggest no-no for spin-offs are mismanaging year 1 expectations from carve-out to standalone financials Capital allocation was sort of glossed over... dividend is gone, no commitment on buybacks, haven't done M&A at STS in 5+ years... They'll still pursue megaprojects (obv can't guide to these tho) so maybe some capital allocation goes there? 85% FCF conversion (from net income) is pretty low for an asset-light business too... sounds like this is a working capital intensive business model Hmm...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So there's the positive fundamental long term outlook that I've interpreted. On the other hand, there's near term headwinds that I highlighted above, which markets are pricing in. Negatives I saw near term were $MSFT Vineland pushing back into Q2 2027, which delays revenue recognition. Alongside 2026/2027 capex hikes + downward revision of next quarter revenue. We've seen markets punish near term execution delays with $AAOI recently too. For long term, I don't see this earnings as negative, given 100% prepayments, compute prices going up, new contracts and their subsidiaries growing.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks
POST · long

Post Holdings INC

Post Holdings remains a large position after the stock's recent decline.

POST $3.6B
Value Investors Club

Seer

Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.

SEER $88M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Hidden in Plane Sight

An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…

ASLE $256M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $897M
Irrational Analysis

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