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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV I don't look at gross profit only, i look at profit to shareholders after all maintenance expenses like SBC and also capital required to grow the business. I will probably make enemies because of this hardline. On that metric the business is losing money and you'd think by now at their (9k locations?) scale they'd be a lot more profitable. Understanding how much a company currently generates in profits should be simple to understand and not require elaborate gymnastics
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

ARR growth rate is stable finally, but what about their profitability? Think about how easy it is to game ARR and how many company's did successfully before collapsing. not sure it will happen to $evlv, but it does provide a warning to over relying on company derived KPIs, especially if that company has had a history of changing metrics, changing managements, and being successfully sued for providing inaccurate marketing material. Profitability is not improving and that is not a good sign for their LT goal you can be a company that grows revenues and expands margins, you can be a company that grows revenues but contracts margins, you can be a company that grows margins but contracts revenues. you can be a company that loses revenues and margins at the same time. which one is evolv $evlv bulls will argue that we should wait for another quarter or two before we see an inflection in profits. that eventually they will scale into their business. i'm afraid to say that i'm suspicious that profits will materialize in any meaningful way ever. if the technology was so transformative and so much better than competitors, and that they have thousands and thousands of customers already, then why is it still losing money?
@valuedontlie 1 click

Colin King on X

Some initial $KBR RemainCo thoughts: Investors thought they were getting a ~20% margin business in STS which turns out to be 10% after corp costs + normalized JV earnings... some of this was expected, but looks like a bigger reset From that lower base, it's expected to grow 10% annually with 12%+ margins and minimal capex which is great No formal 2027 guidance but implying $425M EBITDA and $3.5B revenue (12% margin)... biggest no-no for spin-offs are mismanaging year 1 expectations from carve-out to standalone financials Capital allocation was sort of glossed over... dividend is gone, no commitment on buybacks, haven't done M&A at STS in 5+ years... They'll still pursue megaprojects (obv can't guide to these tho) so maybe some capital allocation goes there? 85% FCF conversion (from net income) is pretty low for an asset-light business too... sounds like this is a working capital intensive business model Hmm...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So there's the positive fundamental long term outlook that I've interpreted. On the other hand, there's near term headwinds that I highlighted above, which markets are pricing in. Negatives I saw near term were $MSFT Vineland pushing back into Q2 2027, which delays revenue recognition. Alongside 2026/2027 capex hikes + downward revision of next quarter revenue. We've seen markets punish near term execution delays with $AAOI recently too. For long term, I don't see this earnings as negative, given 100% prepayments, compute prices going up, new contracts and their subsidiaries growing.

Investor Letters

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MBGL · long

Mobility Global INC -spn

Mobility Global Inc. will become a standalone public company through S&P Global’s spin-off of its Mobility division.

MBGL $6.4B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Programmatic DSPs

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…

EVC $920M
The Mikro Kap 1 click

Return of the Power King

China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…

CYD $750M
Maius Partners 6 clicks

Haw Par Corporation Limited

Haw Par combines Tiger Balm’s stable cash flows with property, leisure and healthcare operations plus stakes in UOB and UOL.

HAWPY $2.8B
smallvalue. 4 clicks

The Costco of Flooring ($FND)

Floor & Decor operates 262 warehouse-format flooring stores, pairing broad in-stock hard-surface selection with design services as it gains…

FND $5.3B
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