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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN just pushed $12.7M/month of revenue from a project at a Georgia data center into Q1 2027, which implies year-end ARR of $283-291M instead of the $400M it expected in August! CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q3 call that $BRUN would've reached $435M of ARR by year-end 2026 without the delay. CEO Andrew Karos blamed a city council request that paused progress at the site, now resolved, and said the project is worth $144-152M of ARR. Q3 revenue came in at $39.9M, up from $31.1M in Q2 but 23.6% below the $52.2M that a straight-line climb to $400M of ARR implied. Year-end ARR would then land right around the $280M in the bear case of my October 19 update. That bear case also had a $62.2M stock sale assumption, which I said on October 26 I'd drop if the 10-Q confirmed $BRUN's $600M+ of project financing. The 10-Q backs up most of the $600M+: $486.9M of new GPU leases through September 30, plus five equipment leases signed in October that require $83.1M of payments. So I'm dropping that stock sale risk, which lifts the bear case to $5.04/share after counting all 6.23M RSUs granted in Q3. At ~$6.20/share, $BRUN trades 23.0% above that bear case. TCV stands at $2.7B, up $800M from Q2, and the 10-Q adds that the agreements signed in September alone are worth more than $700M. Still, the Q3 deck $BRUN released on November 12 says TCV includes renewal options and LOIs, without saying how much of the $2.7B they make up. So I read the miss as timing, not demand: If the Georgia project is billing by March 31, 2027, ARR would clear the $400M in my base case a quarter later than I assumed. The other date to watch is November 30, when the 240 GPU servers from the order $BRUN signed in June are scheduled to start.

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
YOU · short

Clear Secure INC

Clear Secure's Clear Plus subscription business is nearing maturity despite recent bookings strength, supporting a short thesis on YOU.

YOU $8.4B
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