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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Radian ($RDN) is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer that is reshaping itself into a global specialty insurer through its $1.7 billion acquisition of Lloyd’s carrier Inigo, closed in February. Investors are skeptical of the pivot: Q2 missed estimates as a $30 million reserve charge tied to Middle East exposure pushed Inigo’s combined ratio to 97.7%. At $30.61, RDN trades at about 0.85x book value of $36 and roughly 7x annualized operating earnings of $1.14 per quarter. The core mortgage book is better than ever: primary insurance in force hit a record $284 billion, and higher rates keep policies in force longer because fewer borrowers refinance. Radian still holds $1.45 billion of capital above the mortgage insurance standard (PMIERs), 37% above requirements, and excluding the one-off charge, specialty margins were in the high 80s. Book value grew 8.5% year over year, and buybacks are tracking toward the top of the $200–250 million target.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

Reposting because of the amount of work I put into this and how quality of an opportunity I think it is. A 300bps rate hike affects 9% of NI. I think Wall Street still thinks it’s same old keep every loan or wholesale interest rate sensitive $SLM. Not giving them credit at a LTM 5.8x multiple for the new expanding TAM and Capital light partnership model. Just like it took Wall Street ages to figure out $FNMA in the early 80s when Lynch was accumulating every share he could.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6B
Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.3B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $9.3B
Trade Ideas Flow 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $7.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

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