New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Thursday, November 12, 2026

Back to the front page

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research

From X

@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

$LITE & $MRVL Scenario Analysis & Explanations: TLDR: Lumentum brings ~a third of the combined profit to the Marvell deal and gets ~a third of the company. Why would a business more than doubling its revenue accept that? There's no real premium on what it brings!!!! 🚨 * Each cell compares Lumentum holders' share of the combined company's profit vs. what they'd have kept if Lumentum stayed independent. ** Red cells = Lumentum holders are worse off in the deal. Green = better off. *** n/m = Lumentum makes a loss on its own, so a % comparison isn't meaningful. Explanations: - If Lumentum keeps growing, shareholders lose in every column: −12.5% if Marvell hits its $20B FY28 outlook, −33% if Marvell stalls, −43% in a downturn. - If Lumentum just holds today's level, holders only win if Marvell hits $20B (+17%). - If Lumentum's margins fall back to last year's 15%, the deal protects them: +46% to +188%. This kind of shape is normal...every all-stock deal looks like this. You swap 100% of your company for a fixed slice of a bigger one, so you give away some upside if your company outperforms and get cushioned if it doesn't. Again, normal. -> What's NOT normal is where *today* sits on the grid!!!! 🚨 Usually the target is paid a premium on top of what it brings. That shifts the whole grid green, so holders still win if their company keeps performing. Here, Lumentum holders get ~33%, and Lumentum already earns ~31% of the combined profit (~35% on next quarter's guidance). There's no real premium. The breakeven sits right at today!!!!! 🚨🚨🚨 For comparison, here's how the grid changes if they'd got a 40% stake: - Keeps growing + Marvell hits outlook: −12.5% becomes +6%. - Holds today's level + Marvell stays put: −14% becomes +4%. -> Why so little? 1. The $1,132 / 23.9% premium announced today was over Lumentum's share price, which already valued Lumentum more cheaply than Marvell for the profit it makes. 2. So the premium only got holders to their fair share, not above it. 3. And it's paid in Marvell stock at a fixed ratio: with Marvell down ~30% since the leak last week, it's now worth ~$800, below Lumentum's pre-leak price. -> Feels like the trend is against them too. 1. Lumentum's share of the combined profit has gone from a loss in mid-2024 to 9%, 27%, 31%, and ~35% next quarter. 2. The 33% is fixed, so everything above it goes to Marvell holders. 3. Even if Marvell delivers, Lumentum only needs ~26% more profit than today's run-rate to cross into the red, and its own guidance shows ~36% growth in a single quarter. IMO Lumentum management thinks current margins are unsustainable and that CPO hands power to companies like Marvell. If they're wrong, they sold the fastest-growing part of the combined company for roughly what it contributes... while its share was still rising......!!!!!! [Non-GAAP operating profit from company filings and guidance. Scenarios use Marvell's own FY28 outlook]

Investor Letters

All letters

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $45B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 6 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 82 of 286

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

375 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.