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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW of geothermal power by 2030.

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The bitcoin miner turned AI data center developer, $DGXX, is at $2.13/share, down 46.3% since my August 16 update. Since then, it got a $200M debt commitment, syndicated by $GS, to finish its Alabama AI data center, and said Phase 1 (December) and Phase 2 (March 2027) remain on target. That’s good news if the loan closes (expected within 90 days), since I said in August it would decide whether $DGXX can fund the rest of the build with debt or has to keep selling stock. CEO Michel Amar told Frank Curzio of Curzio Research in a November 2 interview that debt financing “seems to be a little bit scarce these days” and has slowed $DGXX down. Regardless, he said all the equipment for both phases is already bought, with the chillers installed. With ~$135M of cash as of October 13 and no debt at June 30, $DGXX’s EV is ~$81M. Amar also said he wants $DGXX at $500M+ of yearly revenue within 36 months, with its leased data center business earning ~60% EBITDA margins and ~25% cash flow margins after debt service. As of August, only ~$140M of the $250-300M of ARR it targets by Q3 2027 was contracted. $DGXX has used $174.5M of its $175M ATM program, and its share count has been flat at 101.4M since August 14. So if the loan falls through, selling more stock would take a new filing. The October 13 release also says $DGXX sold no ATM shares in Q3, though its Q2 10-Q shows it sold 2.85M after June 30 at an average of $3.95, well below the stock’s $5.45 close on June 30. So I’d track dilution through the share count in the Q3 10-Q, not management’s comments. Its November 2 proxy also asks shareholders to expand its stock award pools to 20.3M shares from 16.3M (20% of shares outstanding), with 11.9M free for new grants, after Amar and his son, President Alec Amar, were awarded a combined $19.5M in 2025 (~9% of today’s market cap), mostly in stock and options. That’s more dilution than I’d like after the share count rose 46% this year, to 101.4M from 69.4M at the end of 2025, and the proxy would also let the board raise the RSU pool 10%/year from 2028 without another shareholder vote. Both Amars have bought $166K of stock in the open market since August, most recently 20,000 shares at $2.76 by Michel Amar on October 14, but that’s small next to the $19.5M they were awarded in 2025. Q3 results come out November 13.
@Adam_Wyden 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

$DRVN Full year numbers DIDNT CHANGE in our view. They mentioned restatement costs of at least $50mm and the midpoint of restatement before was 40... My guess is incremental restatement cost is 10-20.. So if the restatement is high might have even been a beat... Take 5 comp was 4.9 pct and holding two year stack in 4q would imply 8.5 pct... this seems like a kitchen sink to me. Franchise brands and auto glass both look good too.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Management at TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO won’t put a number on H2 2026 beyond “positive EBITDA,” after EBITDA fell to $34.0M in Q2 from $48.1M in Q1. $TOYO’s H1 2026 results show both its earnings power and the June break: → Revenue: $261.0M, up 87.6% y/y, but Q2’s $118.2M was down 17.2% from Q1, as cell sales fell 46.4% q/q. → Gross margin: 32.5%, up from 16.6%. Q2’s 31.3% compared with 20.9% a year earlier, and the 6-K credits the increase to “increase in provision of OEM services.” → Net income: $45.8M, or $1.20/diluted share, up from $2.5M, with Q2 at $17.4M. → EBITDA: $82.1M, with $48.1M in Q1 and $34.0M in Q2. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Volumes: 2.61 GW of cells (1.45 GW in Q1, 1.16 GW in Q2) and 191.5 MW of modules. OEM fees (for cells made under one customer’s name) rose to $25.0M in Q2 from $12.2M in Q1, while cell sales fell to $61.4M from $114.6M, and since $TOYO books those fees net, the shift lifted the margin. Inventory rose to $132.1M as of June 30 from $80.0M as of December 31, which the 6-K attributes to lower June revenue during the U.S. customs (CBP) review. $TOYO wrote down $6.5M of inventory in H1, and it ties recoverability to CBP’s final decision. $TOYO beat its 2025 revenue target but missed its net income bars for 2024 and 2025, and its 2026 targets are on hold: → 2024: Its audited net profit, excluding a $35.1M accounting gain on its earnout shares, was $5.4M against the $41M its SPAC deal required, so 11,287,703 of the 13M earnout shares were canceled in May 2025. → 2025: Raised its targets in September 2025, from 3.5 GW of cells and $33M of net income, to $375-400M of revenue, 4.2-4.4 GW of cells, and $39-45M of net income. Revenue came in at $427.4M and cells at 4.5 GW, both above the targets, but GAAP net income of $37.2M missed, while adjusted net income came to $52.2M after adding back $13.7M of stock comp and a $1.3M earnout charge. → 2026: Guided on March 31 to 5.5-5.8 GW of cells, 1.0-1.3 GW of modules, and $90-100M of adjusted net income, which CEO Takahiko Onozuka said would “nearly double net income again.” $TOYO reaffirmed it on May 18, didn’t on August 19, and gave no figures on September 28 beyond positive H2 EBITDA. H1 delivered $46.0M of adjusted net income, 51.1% of the low end of the target, plus 47.5% of the cell target and 19.2% of the module target. So $TOYO’s trailing earnings are backed by cash, but most of them came from H2 2025 and Q1 2026, before the detentions. That’s why you should expect H2 2026 EBITDA to come in below H1’s $82.1M.

Investor Letters

All letters

💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $17MGUTS $11M
PETITION 2 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.6B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $96M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks

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