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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

On August 13, 2026, I wrote up a company that owns 80% of the Storm copper project in Nunavut (Arctic Canada) and all of the West Desert zinc-indium deposit in Utah. Storm alone was worth about what the market paid for the whole company, leaving West Desert’s indium priced near zero. I also flagged that Storm’s pre-feasibility study (PFS), the more detailed study that follows a first-pass preliminary economic assessment (PEA), could disappoint the usual way, with “higher capex or lower recoveries than the PEA assumed.” The PFS came out on November 5, 2026, with higher capex but better recoveries, plus Storm’s first ore reserve. Then on November 9, the company added a maiden exploration target of up to 2.2Mt of contained copper, 7.9x Storm’s current resource. That company is American West Metals $AWMLF, which closed at AUD$0.029 (~US$0.020) on the ASX that day, 9.4% below where I wrote it up and 35.6% below the AUD$0.045 it raised at in its last two placements (stock sales to selected investors). The PFS improved on the PEA: → All 11 years of the mine plan come from the reserve, with inferred tonnes (the lowest-confidence resource category) treated as waste. → The plant recovers 68% of the copper in the ore, or 103,000t over the mine life, up from ~61% in the PEA plan. But the PFS also made Storm more expensive: → Storm needs US$108.3M before first copper, up 74.4% from US$62.1M. → Over the copper the plant recovers, operating costs come to ~US$3.17/lb vs. ~US$2.66/lb in the PEA, or 19.4% more per pound. Meanwhile, $AWMLF had just ~1.6 quarters of cash left as of September 30. So how does a ~US$25M company fund its ~US$55M share of the build? That’s what I answer in my new ~3,400-word update on $AWMLF, including my updated valuation and whether I’d hold through the next placement.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, the tape library maker, just reported a record backlog of nearly $100M as of September 30, more than double the record $45M as of March 31! $QMCO’s revenue rose 42.9% to $89.6M in the September quarter (fiscal Q2), $5.6M above the top of its $82.0M ±$2M guidance, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M beat the top of its $6M ±$1M guidance by $4.1M. Secondary storage, mainly tape systems, grew 126.2% from a year earlier to $44.7M, half of revenue, up from 32%, with hyperscale demand up more than 2.6x. CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the March-quarter call in June that $QMCO “should see a lot more tape drives” from $IBM, its drive supplier, in the September and December quarters, letting it convert its tape library backlog into revenue. Instead, backlog more than doubled, and Meyrath said on the September-quarter call that demand remained ahead of supply, “particularly media and tape.” He said $IBM’s “statement of direction” is to double its tape drive output year-over-year, but “we just don’t know how quickly IBM is going to ramp tape drives.” Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel added that revenue beat guidance “primarily due to price and volume mix,” and that she expects pricing volatility from component shortages “to remain a headwind going forward.” $QMCO guided December-quarter revenue to just $91.0M ±$2M, up 1.5% at the midpoint, and said any upside depends on how many components it can get. It also guided adjusted EBITDA down to $9.1M ±$1M from $11.1M, as operating expenses rise with commissions and R&D hiring. That revenue guidance still runs at $364M/year, above the $360M of FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028) in the base case of my October 28 update. At $19.70/share after hours, close to the $20.25 in that update, $QMCO’s EV is 2.4x TTM revenue, down from 2.8x. It’s also 21.6x the December quarter’s adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized, down from 34.4x the September quarter’s. So I read the quarter as $QMCO already running at my base case’s revenue, with the bull case’s $400M still depending on $IBM’s drive supply. What I’d want to see in the December-quarter results: 1) IBM: Meyrath saying $IBM’s tape drive output rose, since my bull case assumes it ramps early in 2027. 2) Backlog: Revenue above the $93M top of guidance and backlog below ~$100M, which would mean $QMCO is shipping orders faster than new ones come in. 3) Gross margin: Holding near the September quarter’s 41.0%, even though the guidance midpoints imply under 40% by my math.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Disagree. Irrelevant. $ZD sold a single business segment for more than its entire market cap and I'm not even sure it was 20% of total revenues. $CBIZ another example. If $MNRO is selling separate segments to separate entities then even less relevant. In regards to the dividend, that too, makes zero sense. Why would they get financing that carves out (excepts) the December dividend and then go ahead and cancel it? They're telling you they expect to sell the company by the time they report earnings again.

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