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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW of geothermal power by 2030.

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From $3.83/share, you’re risking a $1.62 loss (-42.3%) on TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO in my bear case for a $10.90 gain (+284.6%) in my bull case. I apply 2.0-4.0x EBITDA, well below First Solar $FSLR’s 6.7x, for the trade and governance risks. At the 3.0x midpoint, today’s $137.2M EV implies $TOYO earns just $45.7M/year, 29.2% of its TTM figure. How much of the $156.4M of TTM EBITDA lasts depends on Commerce, U.S. customs (CBP), and $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet (its request for relief from the new 15% tariff on imported cells). Each case values $TOYO at the end of 2027 on that year’s EBITDA, since 2027 is the first full year under the new tariff and Commerce’s final determination is due ~May 13, 2027. I leave out the 45X tax credits, which $TOYO also leaves out of its forecasts, and the HJT cell plant it plans in Texas, which won’t produce before 2028. Each case adds today’s $26.4M of net cash to 2027 EBITDA times the multiple and divides by 42.7M shares. Bear Case ($2.21, -42.3%) The bear case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination (its first ruling, due ~December 14) covers Ethiopian cells without the certification path $TOYO asked for, CBP keeps detaining shipments, and Commerce doesn’t approve $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet. That means Ethiopia’s cells stop reaching U.S. buyers in 2027, which implies 2027 EBITDA of $34.0M, what $TOYO earned in Q2 2026 alone. I apply a 2.0x multiple, under a third of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $2.21/share. Base Case ($6.38, +66.6%) The base case assumes Commerce lets cells made with non-Chinese wafers through by its May 2027 final determination, but CBP’s reviews and the inquiry keep Ethiopia’s U.S. sales below their H1 2026 pace until then. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $82.1M, the same as H1 2026 alone, or 52.5% of the TTM figure. I apply a 3.0x multiple, under half of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $6.38/share. Bull Case ($14.73, +284.6%) The bull case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination clears cells made with non-Chinese wafers, CBP releases $TOYO’s shipments, and Commerce approves its Section 232 term sheet, so Ethiopia’s cells reach U.S. buyers at the H2 2025-H1 2026 pace again. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $156.4M, equal to the TTM figure. I apply a 4.0x multiple, still well below First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $14.73/share after the warrants are exercised.
@DOMOCAPITAL 2 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

For those that missed the Gabelli conference yesterday, the $MNRO CFO had this to say when asked about why they went forward with the Ares financing (TLDR: They are selling the company soon): "We think that Ares is a great partner for us. It provides us a lot of flexibility to operate our business, both from a covenant standpoint, but also doing it with a partner who has experience in the auto aftermarket, and also provides a very sophisticated and tailored private credit solution for us. We had plenty of options as we looked to refinance the credit facility, including our more traditional bank lenders and various different private lenders, but ultimately Ares provided us with the best solution for what we felt were our needs. And our needs really were focused on creating a stable financing backdrop for us over our planning horizon, enabling us to not only execute our growth strategy, but providing flexibility for us to explore a wide range of the alternatives that we're currently evaluating. So we think that this credit facility accomplishes all of those things."

Investor Letters

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💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $17MGUTS $11M
PETITION 2 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.6B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $96M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks

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