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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Energy Fuels' $UUUU made $54.86 of gross profit on each pound of uranium it sold in Q3, nearly 3x the $19.16 of a year ago, as its realized price rose to $88.90/lb and its cost fell to $34.04/lb. Grade at its Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona recovered to 1.04% from Q2's 0.71%, as management expected, but $UUUU mined just 385k pounds in Q3, so its unchanged 2.0-2.5M guide needs 875k-1.375M mined in Q4, more than double Q3's pace. Heavy rare earth prices jumped in Q3, with European dysprosium oxide up 150% to $3,500/kg and terbium oxide up 42% to $6,745/kg ($8,250 as of October 30), the two oxides $UUUU's ~$104M heavy rare earth circuit is being built to make from as early as Q1 2028. At October 30 prices, a full year at that circuit's capacity, up to 21 tonnes of terbium oxide and 122 of dysprosium oxide, would sell for ~$600M, if prices hold and the Donald Project, an Australian mineral sands mine it's earning into, gets built to supply the feed. The net loss tripled to $52.4M, but $28.0M of it was other loss, mostly mark-to-market losses on its securities portfolio, and $9.0M was deal costs. $UUUU sold no stock through its at-the-market (ATM) program in Q3, but buying VAC, the German magnet maker it agreed to acquire in June, still takes ~$718M of cash at a close expected as soon as Q1 2027. That cash would turn ~$156M of net cash ($856M of cash and securities less the $700M convertible) into ~$560M of net debt, unless $UUUU sells more stock first. At ~$7.18/share, $UUUU is a ~$1.90B company, below the $8-10 bear case in my June deep dive and below the $2.0-2.5B I put on just the uranium business plus net cash in my August 10 update. So I read $7.18 as the market pricing the VAC cash call and more ATM sales, not the uranium margins or the rare earth prices, which both moved $UUUU's way in Q3. Some questions on my mind: 1) Funding: How much of the new $500M ATM $UUUU sells below $8, and whether the $725M government loan finalizes first. 2) Mining: Whether Q4 mined pounds reach the 875k-1.375M that the 2.0-2.5M guide needs. 3) Donald: Whether the Donald Project reaches a final investment decision by year-end, since its monazite sand is the feed the heavy rare earth circuit is sized for.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Something unholy with price action in the market lately. $GM crushed on earnings, subsequently raises 25%+ in a week to a new high, because well rates. $CAVA went 54 to 65 to now 54 again in the past 5 sessions because well oil but then earnings ?? Pick anything, pick AAPL or AMZN post earnings to a few days later. These are not tiny stocks. seems there is almost no room for fundamentals or valuation. he only determinant is if its AI on or off and rates and is it moving? Who cares what they say on earnings.....Market structure seems to be broken by passive giving away all prices determination to pod shops and short dated options. This is beyond stretched but who knows when/where it ends in thees being the leading catalysts daily but doubt it ends well

Investor Letters

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No title

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