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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

How magnanimous of Michael Intrator at $CRWV to halt his 10b5-1 stocks sales. Checking filings. Looks like he sold 10MM shares for roughly $1B in gross proceeds (mostly this year). The three founders combined cashed out $3.3B of stock since the IPO. No doubt this stock can be a fantastic trading vehicle given its volatility (250% implied vol into the print), but if you're thinking of this in any longer term context, management already told you what they REALLY think of the business on a longer term horizon....
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

You heard 10x demand for compute > supply from $CRWV today. Hearing from $TSM today on Nikkei Forum: "The demand on our leading node [most advanced] silicon is insatiable" Customers "want to get [their] hands around any compute capability they can have. It's truly an insatiable environment." Q: Whether AI demand was slowing? A: "we did not see any sign of slowdown" Q: How demand compared with TSMC’s ability to supply A: "the demand actually is still far above our capability today to supply." TSMC identified power and substrates as bottlenecks customers were encountering. On the mid-to-high-50s annualized growth estimate for AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029. Wei said "it probably will be higher." Describing things as "insatiable" from a traditionally conservative company... doesn't quite look like any collapse in AI demand.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$CRWV ER and read through for $NBIS and other Neoclouds: “We have 10x as much qualified demand as available capacity”. - interest in 2028 capacity already amounts to several times what CoreWeave has available - CoreWeave raised prices by 25% in July, +10% later in Q3, and more to come in Q4 - Ampere and Hopper rental pricing rose 30–50% quarter over quarter (older GPUs) - better financing conditions (higher prepayments, lower interest 7–7.5% for new loans) - positive adjusted net income in the first half of 2028. So we’re seeing higher pricing esp. for older GPUs…better financing mechanics, and extreme demand imbalance where you have 10x demand > supply. Same issues are there for this company in specific with interest rates, but I’d argue other Neoclouds are in a better spot. But it’s wild to witness AI infrastructure names crash while demand keeps growing
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Quick follow-up on $CRWV after the call...funding picture better than the release suggested: > Next DDTL expected to be IG at 7-7.5% and fund 90%+ of capex. Hasn’t launched yet. > The $9bn of prepayments is from signed contracts. $3bn+ of it is from recontracting existing GPUs. > 2027 capex flat at $37-39bn if they only build committed backlog. > Ampere and Hopper pricing up 30-50% QoQ, above original contract prices. That’s shortage pricing though. > ST deals at ~$40mm/MW vs $20-25mm on 4-5 yr contracts. > No new unsecured through 2027 at current yields and <$5bn of parent-level capital needed. They didn’t say where that comes from. ATM? > No downside case given for what happens if supply catches up. NT funding concern mostly answered. The open question is whether today’s pricing lasts. Thoughts?

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Research update

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