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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root $ROOT, the car insurer that prices drivers on how they actually drive, closed Friday at $43.37/share, down 24.1% in two days from $57.15 before its Q3 report, even though it earned $14.4M against a $5.4M loss a year ago. In my August 10 update, I said $ROOT was riding out the soft market (when large carriers cut prices and spend heavily to win customers) by protecting margins instead of buying growth, and Q3 showed exactly that trade-off. Premiums in force (the annualized premium on every active policy) fell 5.4% y/y, nearly double Q2’s 2.8% drop. Growth in policies offset the lower premium per policy through Q1, but policies were flat from June at 484,037 (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% to $1,441. Basically, this means that $ROOT’s customers are paying less on average, and Root’s customer count has barely moved since June, so the total it collects from customers each year is shrinking (down 5.4% from a year earlier, to $1.40B). CEO Alex Timm said larger carriers raised marketing and cut prices during the quarter, so $ROOT gave up direct-channel growth where returns fell below its targets. CFO Megan Binkley expects year-end policies in force to be “broadly in line with the third quarter.” But new business through partners and independent agents still rose 19% y/y and made up 52% of the total, up from 44% a year earlier. The quarter’s big partnership win was Carvana $CVNA, the online used-car seller, which renewed its embedded insurance deal (coverage sold with the car) on August 31. Timm said the program had sold “well over 250,000 policies” by then. Carvana’s new warrants for up to ~1.5M shares (~10% of the share count) vest on policy milestones through August 2028, so it only earns them by selling more Root policies. In October, $ROOT also launched a pilot with Hyundai, one of its existing partners. At 14 Phoenix-area dealerships, buyers who finance or lease a new Hyundai through Hyundai Capital America get six months of Root insurance free if they enroll and qualify. The pilot puts $ROOT in front of car buyers at the dealership, the way Carvana does online.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

New commentary today from SoftBank on Elon Musks post 4 days ago: “SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders” Analyst Question: “Any comment on that?” SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto: “this is simply not correct at all. There is no such default” This also mirrors what $GE CEO Scott Strazik stated about seeing no procurement cancellations or counterparty financing difficulties. Pretty damaging allegations about the company financing $SPCX competitor (OpenAI + Stargate). I wonder if there’s any more nuance these claims or if it’s false.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If you look at CW laser ASPs for AI data centers, the pricing differences are pretty substantial: 70mW: ~$3–4 100mW: ~$4–6 (Source Photonics channel checks). With some premiums apparently going up to $7-$9 range with the recent shortage for pluggables. 120–150mW NPO: ~$15–20 350mW UHP CW: ~$40 (Nomura) 400mW UHP CW for NPO/CPO: ~$50–75 (Mizuho) With former communication laser chips going from 20-50 cents. The pricing and gross margins of these players go up with each architectural shift (60%+ for CPO lasers). And go up even more depending how far down the stack you go (selling ELSFP was ~2.5x revenue content) In terms of how I see the landscape now: - $COHR is probably the best risk adjusted laser player now, for people who don't like uncertainty. Their new $20B LTA is very substantial. - $LITE pretty negative now given the valuation overhang from $MRVL acquisition. Operationally very opsitive. - $AAOI has extreme demand visibility (likely $6-$9B in new LTAs from just 1 quarter), but credible execution uncertainty. They've also been focusing on pluggables + bottlenecked by DSPs, rather focusing on UHP CPO laser merchant markets. But I think if markets see a new $5B-$7B LTA that they're in late stage discussion for... and see the $4.4B MC. Pretty sure that's a catalyst for recovery. The demand doesn't disappear but timeline shifts back a few months. AOI also signaled DSP as the main bottleneck, last quarter it was TIAs, so other different component players that are interesting. - $SIVE has extreme capacity expansion (300m laser capacity targeted in total). The economic implications that they won't disclose are likely enormous relative to their MC, even if they sell $3 70mW lasers to China pluggable players. But there's a qualification uncertainty to fill the gap, that markets have punished the company for. Especially when management communication amplifies uncertainty, despite the ongoing shortage. Right now entire AI trade is going up and down together though.

Investor Letters

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SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BORCL $363B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

ETN $141B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

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FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $17B
Value Investors Club

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

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LULU $12B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B
MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

The Quality Check #1

The Quality Check #1 reviews recent developments at Arista, Cummins, Veeva, ServiceNow and AppLovin following earnings season.

ANET $235BCMI $64B
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