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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Fuel Tech $FTEK, the power plant pollution-control company, nearly tripled its air pollution control (APC) backlog this year, but none of the new awards came from data centers. APC backlog reached $16.6M as of September 30, up from $14.3M as of June 30 and $7.0M as of December 31, and the $3.3M of APC contracts announced with the results take it to $19.9M. In my August 27 deep dive, I said a first data center order or signed capacity reservation could land by the end of Q3. But none of 2026’s announced awards is a data center order, and neither the Q3 release, the 10-Q, nor the Q3 call mentions the reservation agreement management said in August it was negotiating with a potential data center customer. CEO Ramesh Nuggihalli did call the data center opportunity “significant” on the call, and said the 2027 budget factors in “some of the mega project bidding” that’s still underway. I don’t think management misled anyone, since it only called a Q3 award “a possibility.” But data center awards $FTEK hinted at have now failed to land in two straight quarters, so don’t be surprised if the data center option doesn’t come by Q4.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$PDEX: Pro-Dex (PDEX) makes powered surgical handpieces (drivers and shavers) used mainly in orthopedic, thoracic (chest), and CMF (face/skull) surgeries. They design, build, and repair them primarily for medical device OEMs (one big customer drives most sales), plus some precision machining for aerospace/defense after a 2026 acquisition.⁠ New/upcoming products: Ongoing next-generation orthopedic handpiece for their largest customer (contract through 2028). Helios Pro: latest off-the-shelf CMF/cranial driver with their adaptive torque-limiting software (released for production). Articulating attachment (in development; targeting production spring/summer 2027). Monogram validation units (with Monogram Technologies/Zimmer Biomet; expected later in FY2027). Other roadmap items include a spinal driver and smart driver. Quick Pitch Market Cap $202m=Enterprise Value. Warren Buffett's Owner's Earnings of $13.45m resulting in a 15x multiple. W/C consistently a drag on cashflow. Feb 2026 acquired APM getting them into aerospace and defense. Repair revenue (probably high margin reoccurring) declining as largest customer shifts away from legacy devices. CEO been with co since 2006 and CEO since 2015. CFO been CFO since 2015
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$EMBC: Embecta (EMBC), spun out of Becton Dickinson in 2022, makes the pen needles and syringes people with diabetes use to inject insulin. Its U.S. pen needle business is shrinking from lost share and price cuts, and more patients are moving from daily insulin shots to weekly GLP-1s. To offset that, it is selling its needles inside the boxes of generic GLP-1 drugs, already launched in India, Canada and Brazil and targeted at $100M+ in revenue by 2033. It is also launching cheaper needles and syringes for new markets and buying into other drug-delivery products beyond insulin. Quick Pitch $350m Market Cap/$1.62B Enterprise Value. Less than 3x P/E. Warren Buffett Owners Earnings of $122m ex SBC. Cut dividend switched to $100m Buyback authorization that's being used. CEO/CFO/Director/CLO all bought August 12th
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$AIRT: Air T is a holding company for aviation businesses. Its companies fly cargo and regional feeder routes, sell and repair aircraft parts, and provide airport equipment, software, and aircraft leasing. Air T owns cargo/feeder flying, aircraft parts and repair, airport equipment/software, and leasing businesses. At $27.70, market cap is about $75m. Enterprise value is about $304m including debt, or ~$351m including leases, earnouts, and minority claims. FY25 cash flow less all capex was $7.8m: a tempting 9.6x market-cap multiple. But working capital contributed ~$22m of cash that year; adjusting for it makes that owners’ earnings proxy negative ~$14.6m. FY26 cash flow less capex was -$41.5m. FY26 net income included a $111m noncash bargain-purchase gain—not operating earnings. No open-market common-stock insider buys found; a July Form 144 tied to CEO Nick Swenson proposed selling 10k preferred securities, which doesn’t confirm a completed sale. Rex could drive growth, but integration, debt, inventory, thin margins, and fuel costs are risks. Air cargo demand is growing: IATA reported +4.4% in August.

Investor Letters

All letters

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 5 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $37M
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $682M
Value Investors Club

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $150M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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