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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The ~$120M of debt TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO expects to use for its planned $357M Texas cell plant is still in “very early stage” talks. $TOYO plans a 1.5 GW heterojunction (HJT) cell plant co-located with the Humble, Texas module plant. HJT is a different cell design from the TOPCon cells $TOYO makes today, and $TOYO later wants to add a layer of perovskite (a second light-absorbing material) on top of its HJT cells to get more power per cell. More importantly, the plant would let $TOYO make most of the cells for its Texas panels in the U.S. instead of importing them from Ethiopia, and $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet (its request for relief from the new 15% U.S. tariff on imported cells) is tied to the plant. $TOYO announced the plant on June 8 at a projected $357M, with pilot production “within 20 months.” By its October 6 Analyst Day, its domestic design was complete, permit applications were ongoing, civil construction was set to start only after all permits are obtained, and pilot production was targeted for Q1 2028. $TOYO plans to fund most of the plant with 45X tax credits (earned on each unit of solar equipment made in the U.S.) and debt. The 45X piece assumes the cell plant runs (cells earn $0.04/W), and the debt is, in the slide’s words, “in the planning stages; no definitive documentation has been signed yet.” CFO Yasunari Harada told analysts on October 6 that talks with Japanese and U.S. lenders were a “very early stage discussion.” As for timing, Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, told a July 29 webinar audience $TOYO was “under construction” on the plant, and the August 19 results of its Japanese parent, Abalance, later put the construction start in April 2027 (planned), consistent with the Analyst Day plan to wait for all permits. So the Texas module plant is running and contracted into 2027, but the cell plant that would make $TOYO’s U.S. supply chain its own is still awaiting permits, with its $120M of debt in early talks.
@stockgutter

SG on X

So you got an LLM to spin out a fancy DCF model for you, or maybe you hacked one together in Excel. How do you account for changes in outstanding shares? Most use a linear assumption. That might work for a company that throws off steady FCF, has limited SBC, and consistently buys back shares. For these, share count often shrinks predictably. But for money losing companies, its usually just a poorly reasoned throw-shit-at-the-wall guess. That's a problem. Dilution is the greatest threat to these names, and Wall Street's DCF models never give it serious contemplation. Example: show me an analyst who modeled in 2024 that $SPCE would 7x its outstanding share count. There are none.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO strategy chief says full output at its Texas panel plant would bring in “about $140 million a year” of U.S. tax credits, 85.6% of its market cap, and $TOYO leaves them out of its forecasts. Regardless of how the four U.S. trade actions on its Ethiopian cells turn out, $TOYO’s answer is to make more in the U.S., which has plenty of panel capacity but few cell plants. The Solar Energy Industries Association’s October update counts 75.3 GW of operating U.S. module capacity, but $TOYO’s deck counts just 3.2 GW of operating U.S. cell capacity, citing SEIA’s September data, so most U.S. panel makers still rely on imported cells. Texas modules qualify for the Section 45X production credit, a U.S. tax credit earned on each unit of solar equipment made in the U.S. For modules, it’s $0.07/W at full value through 2029, then 75%, 50%, and 25% of full value in 2030-2032, and nothing after. $TOYO said on July 21 that its Texas subsidiary expects to be eligible to claim the credits for its 2025 tax year, which covers the plant’s first months of production. But Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call that $TOYO will quantify the credits only after its tax, legal, and accounting work is done. For the panels themselves, $TOYO announced $185.6M of purchase orders under two master agreements with U.S. developers on June 10, and ~$240M of binding contracts signed “since mid-June” on September 28, with deliveries through H1 2027. The releases don’t say whether the two overlap, so to stay conservative, I only count the ~$240M. If priced like $TOYO’s H1 2026 module sales (~$0.25/W), ~$240M would be ~1 GW of panels, or ~6 months of the Texas plant’s 2 GW nameplate.

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 5 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $37M
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $682M
Value Investors Club

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $150M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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