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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

From X

@majgeoinvesting 1 click

Maj Soueidan on X

Excerpts from our morning email on $BRM.V and Hammond Manufacturing ( $HMMAF) BRM was clearly the best company I met at the @PlanetMicroCap Toronto conference last week. Whenever anyone asked me the question of who I liked the best at the conference, one stock came out of my mouth. It was BRM. Today’s record quarter supports this opinion and explains why we recently added it to our model portfolio platform. Biorem continues to display operating leverage, with revenue up 48% while EPS more than doubled… The Hammond Manufacturing story is just another example of how one of the best Multi Bagger factors to monitor is companies going through capacity expansions. This is especially true for those that are considered to be value traps trading at deep value levels because investors have lost faith in management’s commitment to shareholder-friendly capital allocation initiatives. We saw that happen with $MUEL before it rose 10x, and now we’re seeing it happen with Hammond Manufacturing…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From $3.83/share, you’re risking a $1.62 loss (-42.3%) on TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO in my bear case for a $10.90 gain (+284.6%) in my bull case. I apply 2.0-4.0x EBITDA, well below First Solar $FSLR’s 6.7x, for the trade and governance risks. At the 3.0x midpoint, today’s $137.2M EV implies $TOYO earns just $45.7M/year, 29.2% of its TTM figure. How much of the $156.4M of TTM EBITDA lasts depends on Commerce, U.S. customs (CBP), and $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet (its request for relief from the new 15% tariff on imported cells). Each case values $TOYO at the end of 2027 on that year’s EBITDA, since 2027 is the first full year under the new tariff and Commerce’s final determination is due ~May 13, 2027. I leave out the 45X tax credits, which $TOYO also leaves out of its forecasts, and the HJT cell plant it plans in Texas, which won’t produce before 2028. Each case adds today’s $26.4M of net cash to 2027 EBITDA times the multiple and divides by 42.7M shares. Bear Case ($2.21, -42.3%) The bear case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination (its first ruling, due ~December 14) covers Ethiopian cells without the certification path $TOYO asked for, CBP keeps detaining shipments, and Commerce doesn’t approve $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet. That means Ethiopia’s cells stop reaching U.S. buyers in 2027, which implies 2027 EBITDA of $34.0M, what $TOYO earned in Q2 2026 alone. I apply a 2.0x multiple, under a third of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $2.21/share. Base Case ($6.38, +66.6%) The base case assumes Commerce lets cells made with non-Chinese wafers through by its May 2027 final determination, but CBP’s reviews and the inquiry keep Ethiopia’s U.S. sales below their H1 2026 pace until then. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $82.1M, the same as H1 2026 alone, or 52.5% of the TTM figure. I apply a 3.0x multiple, under half of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $6.38/share. Bull Case ($14.73, +284.6%) The bull case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination clears cells made with non-Chinese wafers, CBP releases $TOYO’s shipments, and Commerce approves its Section 232 term sheet, so Ethiopia’s cells reach U.S. buyers at the H2 2025-H1 2026 pace again. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $156.4M, equal to the TTM figure. I apply a 4.0x multiple, still well below First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $14.73/share after the warrants are exercised.
@DOMOCAPITAL 2 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

For those that missed the Gabelli conference yesterday, the $MNRO CFO had this to say when asked about why they went forward with the Ares financing (TLDR: They are selling the company soon): "We think that Ares is a great partner for us. It provides us a lot of flexibility to operate our business, both from a covenant standpoint, but also doing it with a partner who has experience in the auto aftermarket, and also provides a very sophisticated and tailored private credit solution for us. We had plenty of options as we looked to refinance the credit facility, including our more traditional bank lenders and various different private lenders, but ultimately Ares provided us with the best solution for what we felt were our needs. And our needs really were focused on creating a stable financing backdrop for us over our planning horizon, enabling us to not only execute our growth strategy, but providing flexibility for us to explore a wide range of the alternatives that we're currently evaluating. So we think that this credit facility accomplishes all of those things."

Investor Letters

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 5 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $37M
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $682M
Value Investors Club

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $150M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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