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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

From X

@stockgutter

SG on X

So you got an LLM to spin out a fancy DCF model for you, or maybe you hacked one together in Excel. How do you account for changes in outstanding shares? Most use a linear assumption. That might work for a company that throws off steady FCF, has limited SBC, and consistently buys back shares. For these, share count often shrinks predictably. But for money losing companies, its usually just a poorly reasoned throw-shit-at-the-wall guess. That's a problem. Dilution is the greatest threat to these names, and Wall Street's DCF models never give it serious contemplation. Example: show me an analyst who modeled in 2024 that $SPCE would 7x its outstanding share count. There are none.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO strategy chief says full output at its Texas panel plant would bring in “about $140 million a year” of U.S. tax credits, 85.6% of its market cap, and $TOYO leaves them out of its forecasts. Regardless of how the four U.S. trade actions on its Ethiopian cells turn out, $TOYO’s answer is to make more in the U.S., which has plenty of panel capacity but few cell plants. The Solar Energy Industries Association’s October update counts 75.3 GW of operating U.S. module capacity, but $TOYO’s deck counts just 3.2 GW of operating U.S. cell capacity, citing SEIA’s September data, so most U.S. panel makers still rely on imported cells. Texas modules qualify for the Section 45X production credit, a U.S. tax credit earned on each unit of solar equipment made in the U.S. For modules, it’s $0.07/W at full value through 2029, then 75%, 50%, and 25% of full value in 2030-2032, and nothing after. $TOYO said on July 21 that its Texas subsidiary expects to be eligible to claim the credits for its 2025 tax year, which covers the plant’s first months of production. But Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call that $TOYO will quantify the credits only after its tax, legal, and accounting work is done. For the panels themselves, $TOYO announced $185.6M of purchase orders under two master agreements with U.S. developers on June 10, and ~$240M of binding contracts signed “since mid-June” on September 28, with deliveries through H1 2027. The releases don’t say whether the two overlap, so to stay conservative, I only count the ~$240M. If priced like $TOYO’s H1 2026 module sales (~$0.25/W), ~$240M would be ~1 GW of panels, or ~6 months of the Texas plant’s 2 GW nameplate.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO ran to $34.50 on October 2, 2026, and has fallen 41.3% since, to $20.25/share. No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August 16 update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn. Dialectic received 14.1M shares in June when it settled its convertible notes, 35.8% of the 39.4M shares outstanding, which makes it $QMCO’s largest shareholder. Its lockup, which also covered $QMCO’s officers and directors, ended on August 23, 30 days after the PIPE shares were registered for resale. So Dialectic could’ve sold into the run to $34.50, and it hasn’t reported a sale. On October 1, $QMCO granted options to buy shares at $31.885, that day’s close, to three executives: → Hugues Meyrath (CEO): 500,000 options. → James Clancy (COO): 400,000 options plus 150,000 RSUs. → Anthony Craythorne (Chief Revenue Officer): 200,000 options. The options vest monthly over four years and only pay off above $31.885, 57.5% above $20.25. CFO William White, fired eight days later, got no grant. So the largest holder hasn’t sold, and management’s new options only pay off above $31.885. But no insider bought during the drop either.

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $682M
Value Investors Club

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $371M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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