Tuesday, November 10, 2026

@calvinblissett Oct 24 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$PRGS: $46.45, ~$1.9B mkt cap, ~$1.5B net debt, ~$3.4B EV. Guiding $275M to $283M of adj FCF this year, a ~14.7% FCF yield on the equity, and ~7.5x non-GAAP EPS. This is the levered one. Progress is a software roll-up: it buys sticky, mature products (OpenEdge, Chef, MOVEit, ShareFile), strips out cost, runs ~40% non-GAAP margins and uses the cash to pay down debt and buy back stock. Just closed Domo for $400M, ~3.5x pro forma EBITDA, funded on the revolver, so net leverage is ~2.9x pro forma. The bet is simple: keep throwing off ~$280M a year, push leverage back toward 2x, and the equity owns a bigger slice of the EV every year. Value Line's price in this issue was $38.61, it has run to $46.45 since, so it's not a secret anymore. Risks: ~3x leverage, flat organic growth (ARR +1%), MOVEit litigation, and GAAP EPS is a fraction of non-GAAP.

@calvinblissett Oct 24 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$DH: $1.08, ~$156M mkt cap, ~$23M net cash. Guiding $57M to $59M of adj EBITDA for 2026, so ~2.3x EV/EBITDA and ~18% trailing FCF yield. Definitive sells data on hospitals and doctors to pharma and medtech sales teams. Revenue is shrinking (-9% in Q2) and the stock went from a $27 IPO in 2021 to about a dollar. Now the controller wants it back. Advent (58.5%) offered $1.02 cash on Sept 1, and founder Jason Krantz (17.6%) would roll his stake. The stock trades above the bid, so the market expects the special committee (Rothschild advising) to get more. $1.02 for a 26% margin data business at ~2.3x EBITDA is a lowball. Nasdaq's sub-$1 cure deadline is Dec 15. Risk: a controller can wait you out, and nothing is signed.

@calvinblissett Oct 24 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$RNGR: $14.71, ~$345M mkt cap, ~$395M EV after the STEP deal. Q2 adj EBITDA $28.6M, so ~3.5x run-rate EBITDA. Ranger runs well-service rigs, wireline and coiled tubing in the Permian and Bakken: the crews that keep old oil wells producing. Unsexy, but maintenance work holds up better than drilling. Capital allocation is the pitch. They've bought back ~4.6M shares since 2023 at ~$11 avg, pay a dividend, and just bought STEP's US coiled tubing assets for $27.5M, ~2.5x expected 2027 EBITDA. Chevron gave them 3 more hybrid ECHO rigs in July. Mgmt is targeting $100M+ of EBITDA against a ~$395M EV. Risk: H1 FCF was negative because customers paid slow (receivables went from $78M to $124M). When that cash comes home, FCF jumps.

@calvinblissett Oct 24 9 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$MQ: $18.85, $1.96B mkt cap, ~$700M cash and zero debt. Over a third of the market cap is cash, so EV is ~$1.26B. Marqeta is the card-issuing plumbing behind Cash App cards, BNPL cards and expense cards. Volume grew 32% last quarter to $120B, revenue +17%, adj EBITDA $37M. EBITDA is guided up low-30s% this year (~$144M), so ~8.7x EV/EBITDA for a business still growing double digits, and it was $29M of EBITDA in 2024. They're eating their own shares: $391M bought back in 2025, $94M more in H1, fresh $150M authorization in August. Catch: Q3 guide has revenue growth slowing to 6-8% and Block is the elephant customer. The Nov 3 print tells you if it's a pothole or a cliff.

@calvinblissett Oct 24 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$BLKB: $55.54, $2.5B mkt cap, ~$1.1B net debt, ~$3.6B EV. Guiding $280M to $290M of FCF this year, ~11.5% FCF yield on the equity. Blackbaud is the software nonprofits, schools and churches run their donors and books on. Nobody rips out their fundraising system mid-campaign, so revenue is sticky and adj EBITDA margins are ~38%. It only grows ~3%, so it's priced like a melting ice cube. But mgmt has pledged at least half of FCF to buybacks through 2030. They retired ~6% of shares in H1 alone and the count is down from 52.5M at YE23 to 44.8M. That compounds per share even with no growth. Risks: ~2.6x leverage, AI coming for vertical SaaS. Q3 is Oct 28.

@ActAccordingly Oct 24 3 clicks

PAA Research on X

@TylerHardt It is the business model. We've done extensive work there. Tons of litigation AGAINST their customers to avoid payment. Exclusions are the "secret sauce " not technology $KNSL

@StableBread Oct 24

Fajasy on X

Can Boost Run $BRUN borrow the $527-686M it needs for H2 2026 without selling stock? CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q2 call that $BRUN is working on new ways to finance the build: “We continue to innovate on financing structures beyond the equipment financing approach used to date and expect to provide additional color and progress on this over the next quarter.” The October 8 prospectus amendment names asset-backed securitizations (bonds backed by its GPUs and customer contracts) and rated parent-level debt as new forms of financing $BRUN expects to access. But I found no new facility, lender, or term sheet in its filings or press releases from August 14 to October 16. Founder and CEO Andrew Karos acknowledged on the Q2 call that there’s “a big gap in the market right now” in financing for customers without investment-grade credit. $BRUN’s named customers are private AI startups without investment-grade ratings, so its contracts are harder to borrow against. For comparison, $NBIS’s first secured loan on July 17, $775M at 2.50 points over SOFR (a short-term benchmark rate), was backed by GPUs running under a contract with an investment-grade customer. Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, alone accounts for $157.2M/year, 52.3% of what $BRUN’s disclosed contracts should bring in by year-end, and was still in talks to raise $5-6B as of early September. I found no announcement that it closed the round through October 16, so lenders financing its GPUs are also betting that the round closes. Karos also mentioned $NVDA’s AI Compute Partnership (AICP), a program NVIDIA launched in July to backstop GPU clouds’ clusters with its investment-grade credit, for a share of their revenue. However, NVIDIA paused some of its AICP deals over antitrust concerns, the Wall Street Journal reported on August 27. NVIDIA said the program is still in place, but The Information, a tech news site, reported on October 5 that NVIDIA is rethinking its revenue-sharing deals with GPU clouds. Still, lessors funded 79.5% of the H1 2026 build for GPUs already rented out on contracts worth ~1.4x their cost, so I believe $BRUN most likely borrows the $527-686M without selling stock. The Q3 report (mid-November) will show how much $BRUN leased in Q3. If lessors funded 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5%, $BRUN would need $199-259M of its own cash for the build, more than its $191.8M of pro forma cash. Covering the ~$7-67M gap and keeping three months of the ~$221M of 2027 payments in cash would take a $62-122M stock sale. At $8.89/share, the sale would mean 7.0-13.8M new shares, 8.4-16.4% of the 83.8M outstanding. So the stock at $8.89 depends less on demand or the book $BRUN has signed than on whether it can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices.