Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Another High-Premium, Multi-Billion-Dollar Canadian Oil Deal

Strathcona Resources will acquire Greenfire Resources for C$2.8 billion including debt, valuing the Canadian heavy-oil producer at up to a 39% premium.

GFR $1.4B

Bison Insights 6h ago 2 clicks

4h ago GLIBA $1.1B

Q3 Earnings: XPEL, Liberty Capital, Douglas Dynamics, Strattec, Seaport (XPEL, GLIBA, PLOW, STRT, SEG)

Hidden Gems Investing 2 clicks

7h ago AN $6.1B

The AutoNation Story

Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread 36m ago

Fajasy on X

Read the 8-K on the record backlog here: Here’s my October 28 update on $QMCO (you can read most of it for free):

@StableBread 36m ago

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, the tape library maker, just reported a record backlog of nearly $100M as of September 30, more than double the record $45M as of March 31! $QMCO’s revenue rose 42.9% to $89.6M in the September quarter (fiscal Q2), $5.6M above the top of its $82.0M ±$2M guidance, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M beat the top of its $6M ±$1M guidance by $4.1M. Secondary storage, mainly tape systems, grew 126.2% from a year earlier to $44.7M, half of revenue, up from 32%, with hyperscale demand up more than 2.6x. CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the March-quarter call in June that $QMCO “should see a lot more tape drives” from $IBM, its drive supplier, in the September and December quarters, letting it convert its tape library backlog into revenue. Instead, backlog more than doubled, and Meyrath said on the September-quarter call that demand remained ahead of supply, “particularly media and tape.” He said $IBM’s “statement of direction” is to double its tape drive output year-over-year, but “we just don’t know how quickly IBM is going to ramp tape drives.” Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel added that revenue beat guidance “primarily due to price and volume mix,” and that she expects pricing volatility from component shortages “to remain a headwind going forward.” $QMCO guided December-quarter revenue to just $91.0M ±$2M, up 1.5% at the midpoint, and said any upside depends on how many components it can get. It also guided adjusted EBITDA down to $9.1M ±$1M from $11.1M, as operating expenses rise with commissions and R&D hiring. That revenue guidance still runs at $364M/year, above the $360M of FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028) in the base case of my October 28 update. At $19.70/share after hours, close to the $20.25 in that update, $QMCO’s EV is 2.4x TTM revenue, down from 2.8x. It’s also 21.6x the December quarter’s adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized, down from 34.4x the September quarter’s. So I read the quarter as $QMCO already running at my base case’s revenue, with the bull case’s $400M still depending on $IBM’s drive supply. What I’d want to see in the December-quarter results: 1) IBM: Meyrath saying $IBM’s tape drive output rose, since my bull case assumes it ramps early in 2027. 2) Backlog: Revenue above the $93M top of guidance and backlog below ~$100M, which would mean $QMCO is shipping orders faster than new ones come in. 3) Gross margin: Holding near the September quarter’s 41.0%, even though the guidance midpoints imply under 40% by my math.

@valuedontlie 37m ago

Colin King on X

October VDL write-ups: 1) Portfolio update part 1 & 2 — current holdings, what i’m buying, etc. 2) $TFC — management change + insider buy 3) $FLO — beaten down CPG 4) $THNC.TO — restructuring / profit inflection 5) Guide to turnarounds

@DOMOCAPITAL 44m ago

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Disagree. Irrelevant. $ZD sold a single business segment for more than its entire market cap and I'm not even sure it was 20% of total revenues. $CBIZ another example. If $MNRO is selling separate segments to separate entities then even less relevant. In regards to the dividend, that too, makes zero sense. Why would they get financing that carves out (excepts) the December dividend and then go ahead and cancel it? They're telling you they expect to sell the company by the time they report earnings again.

@leevalueroach 2h ago

Lee Roach on X

88 days ago I said the $11.25 bid for $DDI’s minority was running out of runway because the company’s own cash per ADS was about to match it. Today the controller signed at $16.25. $12.21 to $15.70. +28.6%. Sometimes the whole thesis fits on a balance sheet.

@mavix_leon 2h ago

mavix on X

Shelly Group $SLYG 9M '26 results: ▫️ Revenues +29.8% (Q3: +35.1%) ▫️EBIT +25.4% ▫️EBIT margin of 24.3% (vs. 25.2%) ▫️Profit +28.5% ▫️OCF +279% ▫️FCF +380% ▫️Cash +127% ▫️Installer network reaches approximately 11,300 members ✅ Guidance confirmed

@valuedontlie 3h ago

Colin King on X

Another $GDOT deal delay + share price beatdown

@StableBread 4h ago

Fajasy on X

Read the 10-Q on the unremediated weaknesses here: Read the June-quarter 10-Q’s September 30 target here: Here’s my October 28 update on $QMCO (you can read most of it for free):