Monday, November 9, 2026

Amplitude (NASDAQ: AMPL) Stock Rating: Distribute After Q3 FY12/26 Earnings (No Paywall)

Amplitude beat Q3 guidance with $110.6 million revenue, up 24.9%, and raised full-year outlook, but slowing RPO growth, lower gross margin and AI competition prompted a Distribute rating.

AMPL $2B

Cestrian Capital Research 3h ago 1 click

6h ago DAN $2.1B

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Value Don't Lie 1 click

11h ago STRL $7.6B

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

From X

@leevalueroach 8m ago

Lee Roach on X

Whelp all gains reversed. What idiotic thing did $TTD say on the call?

@leevalueroach 2h ago

Lee Roach on X

The answer was go long $TTD

@stockgutter 4h ago

SG on X

@SowingAlphaSeed great info. Its much more tame this year -- other than $MRNA $KOD $SG I can't think of many other names that melted up 100+% in the past few months. $CHPT is close.

@StableBread 5h ago

Fajasy on X

QXO's $QXO CEO Brad Jacobs just announced his ninth company, which he'll run as chairman and CEO while keeping both roles at QXO. His firm, Jacobs Private Equity, is putting $900M of a $1B investment into CKX Lands $CKX, a small Louisiana land company that will be renamed and operate "in an industry to be determined," in a deal expected to close in early 2027. Jacobs started $QXO the same way in 2024, when his firm put $900M of a $1B investment into SilverSun Technologies, a small software reseller, and renamed it QXO. $QXO pre-released its Q3 results on November 9, three days before its full report, for a call that also covered Jacobs' new venture. Q3 sales rose 79% y/y to $4.90B, and adjusted EBITDA rose 85% to $557M, lifting the margin to 11.4% from 8.4% in Q2. In my August 16 update, I wrote that TopBuild, the insulation distributor and installer $QXO bought on July 1, would be the first acquisition that lifts the blended margin rather than pulling it down. TopBuild made an 18.4% adjusted EBITDA margin on $6.2B of sales in 2025, or ~$285M/quarter on ~$1.55B. If TopBuild earned that average in Q3, the rest of $QXO (its roofing business plus Kodiak, the lumber and building materials distributor it bought on April 1) made ~$272M on ~$3.34B of sales, an ~8.1% margin. That's the same $272M as Q2, and less than the $301M $QXO made in Q3 2025, before it owned Kodiak or TopBuild. So unless TopBuild fell short of its 2025 pace, the margin gain came from what $QXO bought, not from Jacobs improving the businesses it already owned. Jacobs says ending his $XPO, $GXO, and $RXO chairmanships in 2025 gave him the capacity for CKX. $QXO also named Ken West, who led three business segments at Honeywell $HON, president and COO as of September 1 to run its day-to-day operations. At ~$13.50/share, even after a ~17% jump on November 9, $QXO still trades in the low-to-mid teens my June 7 deep dive had as the bear case, where margins stall. The ~$24.60 base case, where combined margins move toward 14% by 2028, would be an ~82% gain. What I'd want to see from here: 1) TopBuild: Its Q3 adjusted EBITDA, if the November 12 report breaks it out, to confirm what the rest of $QXO earned. 2) Leverage: Net debt as of September 30 vs. the $7-9B I estimated in June, with Q3 interest expense up to $163M from $38M in Q2. 3) Management: Whether any $QXO executives move to CKX before the deal closes in early 2027.

@AsifSuria 6h ago

Asif Suria on X

On our latest podcast, we spent some time talking about why Wendy's $WEN stock went up - instead of going down - last week after it turned down an acquisition offer by Trian Fund Management. The more interesting part was probably the insider purchases of two different biotech companies by Baker Bros. In one of those cases they were willing to buy after the stock went up more than 200% in less than two months. No wonder both $MDGL and $KOD are up more than 6% today.

@leevalueroach 7h ago

Lee Roach on X

Anyone have a view on how The Trade Desk $TTD will report tonight?

@Mike10947310 7h ago

Mike on X

See $CECO this am for example

@BlueDuckCap 8h ago

BDC on X

Evan, it's disingenuous to offer Waymo as evidence of an instance where they should NOT have raised external capital. Fact is, $GOOGL Search is one of the most profitable and dominant businesses of all time supporting billions of cumulative earnings, FCF, and trillions in market cap. The margin for error at $SNAP is much thinner; the cumulative score card at SNAP measured by stock price, is not even in the same universe as $GOOGL. Sure they could have funded Waymo internally. Maybe they should have. But SNAP is not GOOGL. Not even in the same conversation.