New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, November 9, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

We own both $ONTO and $CAMT because they sell overlapping tools to different HBM makers, and we raised Onto while holding Camtek. In our 4Q26 portfolio rebalance we increased Onto in our portfolio and held Camtek unchanged. Inspection identifies defects. Metrology measures dimensions and material properties to check that manufacturing meets specifications. Both companies sell inspection and metrology tools for HBM and advanced packaging, but their customer exposure differs. Onto is more closely tied to SK hynix's capital-spending plans. Our industry information identifies Camtek as a preferred supplier for Samsung's HBM production lines, and Samsung is investing aggressively to catch up with SK hynix in HBM. Camtek is smaller and more specialized, and we see a technical edge in selected HBM applications. Onto also sells chip-fabrication metrology and packaging lithography, which Camtek does not offer. We raised Onto because increasingly complex chip designs give customers reasons to keep investing beyond the current packaging recovery. We hold Camtek as the more focused advanced-packaging investment.
@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $8.4B backlog at BWX Technologies $BWXT turns into revenue by the end of 2027? $BWXT expects to recognize 55% of the $8.4B backlog, or ~$4.6B, by the end of 2027. Another $1.4B of unexercised contract options sit outside the backlog, with $900M expected to be awarded in 2030 and $500M in 2035. Three items drive $BWXT’s quarterly FCF swings: 1) Payables: Higher accounts payable added $71.4M to H1 2026’s $249.0M of operating cash flow, vs. $6.9M a year earlier. The 10-Q credits the cash flow increase mainly to the timing of vendor payments, customer billings, and project cash flows, which can reverse in later quarters. 2) Seasonality: Retainages (payments withheld on the government segment’s fixed-price incentive contracts until set conditions are met) build in Q1 and Q3, with larger payments in Q2 and Q4. 3) Equity income: $BWXT’s share of the profit from the joint ventures that manage 14 government nuclear sites, including Savannah River and Pantex, comes in as equity income, now $80M/year. It counts toward adjusted EBITDA (15.7% of Q2’s $155.5M), but $BWXT only gets the cash when the joint ventures pay dividends. That’s why I’d judge $BWXT’s FCF on the full year, not the quarter.

Investor Letters

All letters

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates converts $4.7 million of Lassonde debentures at a 69% premium, cutting debt to $10.9 million and raising Lassonde ownership…

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks
FND · long

FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS

Floor & Decor operates 281 warehouse-format stores selling hard-surface flooring and accessories nationwide.

FND $5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 79 of 281

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

360 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.