Sunday, November 8, 2026

Blue Dolphin (BDCO): A Tiny Texas Refinery Printing Money in a Diesel Shortage (1.3x P/E)

Blue Dolphin’s 15,000-barrel-per-day Texas refinery earned $2.18 per share in first-half 2026 as diesel shortages widened crack spreads, while CEO control and technically defaulted debt…

BDCO $147M

Calvin Blissett 54m ago 1 click

45h ago EVC $832M

Post Q3 EVC Update

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Nov 6 LOECF $726M

Oil & Gas M&A Boom Continues with Another Billion-Dollar Oil Buyout

Bison Insights 3 clicks

From X

@BarbarianCap 25m ago

Barbarian Capital on X

I had missed that Applebee's and IHOP parent $DIN (like $WEN) rejected a takeover proposal . But then I immediately got distracted by their new menu item Bacon Cheeseburger Wonton Tacos https://t.co/0SemWAJgI9

@aleabitoreddit 5h ago 1 click

Serenity on X

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.

@calvinblissett 24h ago

Calvin Blissett on X

$PDEX: Pro-Dex (PDEX) makes powered surgical handpieces (drivers and shavers) used mainly in orthopedic, thoracic (chest), and CMF (face/skull) surgeries. They design, build, and repair them primarily for medical device OEMs (one big customer drives most sales), plus some precision machining for aerospace/defense after a 2026 acquisition.⁠ New/upcoming products: Ongoing next-generation orthopedic handpiece for their largest customer (contract through 2028). Helios Pro: latest off-the-shelf CMF/cranial driver with their adaptive torque-limiting software (released for production). Articulating attachment (in development; targeting production spring/summer 2027). Monogram validation units (with Monogram Technologies/Zimmer Biomet; expected later in FY2027). Other roadmap items include a spinal driver and smart driver. Quick Pitch Market Cap $202m=Enterprise Value. Warren Buffett's Owner's Earnings of $13.45m resulting in a 15x multiple. W/C consistently a drag on cashflow. Feb 2026 acquired APM getting them into aerospace and defense. Repair revenue (probably high margin reoccurring) declining as largest customer shifts away from legacy devices. CEO been with co since 2006 and CEO since 2015. CFO been CFO since 2015

@calvinblissett 24h ago 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$EMBC: Embecta (EMBC), spun out of Becton Dickinson in 2022, makes the pen needles and syringes people with diabetes use to inject insulin. Its U.S. pen needle business is shrinking from lost share and price cuts, and more patients are moving from daily insulin shots to weekly GLP-1s. To offset that, it is selling its needles inside the boxes of generic GLP-1 drugs, already launched in India, Canada and Brazil and targeted at $100M+ in revenue by 2033. It is also launching cheaper needles and syringes for new markets and buying into other drug-delivery products beyond insulin. Quick Pitch $350m Market Cap/$1.62B Enterprise Value. Less than 3x P/E. Warren Buffett Owners Earnings of $122m ex SBC. Cut dividend switched to $100m Buyback authorization that's being used. CEO/CFO/Director/CLO all bought August 12th

@calvinblissett 24h ago

Calvin Blissett on X

$AIRT: Air T is a holding company for aviation businesses. Its companies fly cargo and regional feeder routes, sell and repair aircraft parts, and provide airport equipment, software, and aircraft leasing. Air T owns cargo/feeder flying, aircraft parts and repair, airport equipment/software, and leasing businesses. At $27.70, market cap is about $75m. Enterprise value is about $304m including debt, or ~$351m including leases, earnouts, and minority claims. FY25 cash flow less all capex was $7.8m: a tempting 9.6x market-cap multiple. But working capital contributed ~$22m of cash that year; adjusting for it makes that owners’ earnings proxy negative ~$14.6m. FY26 cash flow less capex was -$41.5m. FY26 net income included a $111m noncash bargain-purchase gain—not operating earnings. No open-market common-stock insider buys found; a July Form 144 tied to CEO Nick Swenson proposed selling 10k preferred securities, which doesn’t confirm a completed sale. Rex could drive growth, but integration, debt, inventory, thin margins, and fuel costs are risks. Air cargo demand is growing: IATA reported +4.4% in August.

@BarbarianCap 25h ago

Barbarian Capital on X

Outback Steakhouse Owner Raises Profit Outlook as Chain’s Turnaround Continues $BLMN https://t.co/mYeWfuvJ5I

@aleabitoreddit 27h ago

Serenity on X

I think we've reached extreme market dislocation territory. $POET as one example traded close to -$98M under their net cash on Thursday, giving a very negative value to their actual business. But even if hyperscaler capex gets reduced, I'd argue demand visibility on some bottlenecks from substrates, memory, and optics far exceeds market current valuations. And the sector drop presents a very compelling opportunity.

@MaiusPartners 39h ago 1 click

Maius on X

$PSIX Q3 results and recent power sector thoughts: The company delivered an exceptional Q3 clean “beat and raise” by any measure — even better than the record Q2 2025, when the stock peaked at over $100, with a much better story today. Yet the stock trades at a fraction of the valuation, Why? Long-term followers know we turned constructive on $PSIX only recently after an extensive amount of fundamental work and have not been afraid to be critical in the past. It was a meaningful position heading into the print. Given broader sector risks, we also held several related short positions as a factor hedge. However, after analysing $ANT S1 filings and election results, we think the narrative has shifted materially over the past week and when the facts change, it’s always important to reassess one’s central beliefs and have opted to close the majority of the long positions in $PSIX (retaining an OTM call option), while keeping all the shorts. The high level math: ~30 GW of behind-the-meter power capacity is scheduled to become available in 2027, scaling to >100 GW by 2030 if the dozen suppliers deliver on announced expansions (many won’t). Absent major changes in U.S. politics or AI model diffusion rates to support far higher collective monetisation rates across the entire industry, rapid buildout of new data centres on American soil can neither be justified economically, nor politically, a view held by the credit markets for some time, but only just beginning to be priced in by equity investors. The behind the meter power industry risks moving quickly into excess in such a scenario, with incremental suppliers at especially high risk. $PSIX has been one of the top-performing behind-the-meter power plays we track since our recent full note. Its unfortunate market conditions changed so quickly, substantially reducing the probability of developing into the multi-bagger we envisioned. Congrats to everyone who made money in this sector the past few months, it certainly hasn’t been easy (especially on the long side!) — and have a great weekend! DMs always open for those wanting to discuss further.