Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, November 7, 2026

Back to the front page

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 21 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Commerce’s first ruling on whether TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO Ethiopian cells should pay the duties on Chinese cells is due ~December 14. $TOYO says those cells use no Chinese wafers, but in 2025, it bought $94.9M of goods from VSun China, which its 20-F calls “a crucial supplier of monocrystalline silicon wafer.” Circumvention is when a producer finishes its products in another country to avoid duties on goods from its home country. On May 12, 2026, First Solar $FSLR and seven other U.S. manufacturers asked Commerce to extend the 2012 duties on Chinese solar cells to cells and modules completed in Ethiopia with Chinese parts. Commerce opened the inquiry on July 17, and $TOYO’s deck says it’s a mandatory respondent, meaning Commerce chose $TOYO as one of the companies whose production, sourcing, and shipment records it examines directly. Commerce targets a preliminary determination within 150 days (~December 14, 2026) and a final one within 300 days (~May 13, 2027), unless it extends the deadlines. $TOYO’s defense rests on the line Commerce drew in 2023. In its Southeast Asia rulings that August, Commerce applied the China duties to cells made there from wafers produced in China, plus modules that paired those cells with more than two Chinese components. However, it didn’t count wafers made outside China as Chinese, even when they used Chinese polysilicon. Products outside those terms could avoid the China duties through a certification process, but Commerce barred the companies it found uncooperative in those inquiries from using the certification. Neither $TOYO nor VSUN (the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of) was on that list. $TOYO’s deck says the inquiry also covers past shipments. $TOYO bought no raw materials from VSun China in H1 2026, just $2.6M of machinery, but it did buy $7.4M of unspecified raw materials from VSUN’s Vietnamese subsidiary in Q2. I found no filing, release, or Commerce notice that says where VSun China’s wafers were made or which $TOYO plant used them. $TOYO has asked Commerce for a prospective path, which would judge its current production separately from past shipments. $TOYO’s slide on that request reads, “Commerce has not agreed to either approach. Timing and outcome remain uncertain.” I’m fairly comfortable with $TOYO’s current cells, since $TOYO says they use non-Chinese wafers, which Commerce left out of the China duties in its 2023 rulings. I’m less comfortable with its 2025 shipments, since $TOYO bought $94.9M of goods from VSun China that year, and Commerce hasn’t agreed to judge them separately from current production.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) detained just $13,770 of TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO solar cells in May, yet by $TOYO’s own account, the review affected its Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings. CBP enforces the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which presumes that any product made even partly in China’s Xinjiang region involves forced labor, so the agency can hold solar shipments until the importer documents where its polysilicon came from. The cells were worth little, but U.S. customers pulled back. $TOYO’s largest customer (35% of H1 2026 revenue) placed no orders in June, Ethiopian production lines sat idle that month, and moving their costs into G&A drove most of a ~$3.4M rise in other G&A costs in Q2. Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call on August 19 that the total amount detained was “not all that significant,” and he was optimistic the detentions would be released in Q3, which ended September 30. By October 6, 2026, when $TOYO held its Analyst Day, CBP had detained four of $TOYO’s cell shipments, though $TOYO didn’t say how many cells or dollars they carried. Resch called the detentions “almost a normal part of the process,” and on the Q2 call, he had said CBP moves a company to an expedited path “after about four reviews or so.” He also introduced Ana Hinojosa as part of the $TOYO team, noting she was CBP’s former Executive Director of Trade Remedy Law Enforcement. She told analysts the company was “very optimistic that the resolution of the detentions is a day to a week away.” I found no announcement of a release in $TOYO’s press releases or filings through October 26. VSUN, the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of, has had the same problem. Abalance, the Japanese group that controls both companies, disclosed that CBP refused entry to part of VSUN’s panels from Vietnam in January 2026, costing it ¥2,082M (~$13.3M at today’s exchange rate), and that solar products from two major overseas subsidiaries, which it didn’t name, were detained under the UFLPA. I’m not comfortable with the detentions yet, since CBP doesn’t appear to have a deadline to decide, and June already proved that customers stop placing orders while $TOYO’s cells are under review.

Investor Letters

All letters

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192M
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $151M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $371M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 74 of 276

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.