Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, November 7, 2026

Back to the front page

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 18 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

𝙀𝙭-𝘼𝙣𝙩𝙚 𝙫𝙨. 𝙀𝙭-𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝘾𝙖𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙨 One of the more important distinctions in catalyst-driven investing is “ex-ante” vs. “ex-post” catalysts (my words). Both can offer significant valuation dislocations, but the mechanics of realizing that value are fundamentally different… “Ex-ante” trades are cleaner. You identify a gap between price and intrinsic value, with an upcoming event (spin-off, asset sale, regulatory decision, etc.) that can force the market to reassess the security. You have a mechanism for value realization and at least (some) visibility into timing. “Ex-post” trades are much harder. Something unexpected happens, investors “shoot first, ask questions later,” and the stock collapses. Deep-value and distressed investors love these situations because the apparent discount to intrinsic value can be enormous. But the event that created the dislocation does absolutely nothing to resolve it. Look at $BAYN, where an identifiable June litigation catalyst helped drive a meaningful rerating. Contrast that with $CODI following its Lugano accounting scandal, where the stock collapsed from the high teens into the single digits. It took months of financial reporting progress, improved visibility, and renewed confidence for the stock to recover even partially. On the flip side, look at $VRRM following its major contract loss, where what initially looked like a massive overreaction was followed by further deterioration, with the stock now at $2.80. The irony is that ex-post trades almost always require a new “mini ex-ante” catalyst to unlock value. Otherwise you’re simply betting that the market eventually recognizes something is cheap. That can take years, and even then the security may never recover anywhere close to its prior valuation. The lesson is that a catalyst creating a valuation gap is not the same as a catalyst closing it. Cheapness is not a catalyst, and the magnitude of a selloff tells you very little about the probability of recovery…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I found no named data center or space customer, and no disclosed revenue from either, in TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO filings, releases, or decks, even though its pitch increasingly mentions AI and space. The mentions are then-CEO Junsei Ryu’s November 2024 line about grid demand from “data centers, electric vehicles, and industry,” CEO Takahiko Onozuka’s May 2026 plan for a U.S. R&D center to help “power the AI economy,” a Citi $C investor webcast on space and AI on July 8, and “data-center applications” among the end markets for the ~$240M of module contracts, with no dollar split. The space pitch rests on the HJT (heterojunction) cells $TOYO plans to make in Texas. The slides CTO Dr. Aihua Wang and Chief Technical Advisor Dr. Jianhua Zhao presented at the Citi webcast priced HJT modules at $0.46/W, vs. $70-170/W for the multi-junction cells satellites use today. But HJT cells turn only 20% of sunlight into power in space, vs. 30-34% for multi-junction cells, and the same slides say efficiency matters more than cost in space, since a more efficient cell gets more power from the same payload. $TOYO’s Analyst Day deck later called the comparison “an internal technology evaluation” and “not a disclosed business line.” Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, still told analysts that “every single data center that goes up in space is going to be solar powered.” Data centers and space add no disclosed revenue today, and none of my valuation cases counts new business from either, which, if you were being optimistic, makes them a free option on a cell technology $TOYO doesn’t yet produce.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TZOO. Something happened after I posted this. For the second time someone intelligent reached out sharing their thoughts and insists. They were one of the only people to speak to the CEO in the past year. I’d never looked too deeply but it’s been on Joel Greenblatt magic formula for years now. They underwent a significant business model change. I can attest to the value proposition personally because recently I traveled somewhere where they posted a very popular (very good value) deal. AI is not as much of a threat as it may seem and actually is more likely to be a tailwind which I explain. The business model grew through 2008 so I’m not overly concerned about recession risk, and their reports show that 74% of their affluent travel loving customer base would cut travel last. I think the stock can 4x. It reminds me of $BMBL sentiment and accounting wise. Writeup tommrow

Investor Letters

All letters

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192M
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $151M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $371M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 74 of 276

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.