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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Little rant, but to show you how rampant deleveraging has become: - $CIFR is worth 44% LESS than when they announced their initial $GOOGL / $AMZN colo deals. - $AAOI is now ~ the same price BEFORE they secured major hyperscaler orders, raised $1.6B for capacity expansion and gave their suprising initial -> $378M+ projection -> ~$471M revenue forecast. - $ESMT ($2B MC) is the perfect example representing the memory sector. B-BUT AI NAMES ARE NOT PROFITABLE??? Q3 Earnings: $526.2M gross profit, $330M net income. To give you a comparison of what that looks like, the net income of $CRWD ($251B MC) was literally $5.3M. $NOW ($113B MC) was $277M. $TSLA ($1.5T) was $787M. Different industries/durability, but if we care about what's actually hitting the balance sheet: ESMT is sitting on ~$937M in net assets ($740M net cash, $278M inventory, etc), so EV goes down to $1.2B ish. Annualized P/E: 1.6x... People keep saying "Peak Earnings", "Cyclical", "no moat" but who in the world would want to build an old ass DDR2 line + fab and qualify it? From ESMT commentary, we'll likely see ASP hikes Q4 to make up for potential consumer demand dropping. And further supply tightening with Samsung/Micron discontinuing DDR2/DDR3 lines. Winbond was leaving DDR2 lines to pursue higher end memory. People keep saying China, but even Gigadevice was leaving DDR3 to pursue higher end memory. "DDR3's share of our DRAM revenue will continue to decline until we eventually stop selling DDR3 products."Nanya discontinued DDR2 lines few days ago. This is while majority of ESMT revenue comes from DDR2/DDR3. In ~3 quarters of constant earnings, ESMT would have more assets than their entire MC. Who is going to stop buying $40 DLink cameras if their $3 memory cost goes to $3.5? $MU / Samsung / $SKHY / $SNDK share similar parallels where durability is contractually enforced via take/pay LTAs with price floors. But markets are pretending that it just won't happen, despite Samsung already being the most profitable company in the world. Markets should care about how much FCF is actually hitting the balance sheets, but are just indiscriminately selling off everything now. But continue rotating capital into 47x P/E companies like Walmart or 180x forward P/E names like $CRWD.

Investor Letters

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Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

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