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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Even with current narratives like biotech eg. $TWST, there's 100%+ Y/Y growth from their AI testing segment with Anthropic. But if you look at company overall revenue projections, they're only calling for double revenue growth by 2031 (implying 15% annual growth). I'm sure they can beat, but this seems relatively slow compared to AI supply chains growing hundreds to 1000% Y/Y and seeing record levels of net income growth Q/Q. Not all bottlenecks have the same economic impact the way hyperscaler capex in AI supply chains does.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$EMBC: Embecta (EMBC), spun out of Becton Dickinson in 2022, makes the pen needles and syringes people with diabetes use to inject insulin. Its U.S. pen needle business is shrinking from lost share and price cuts, and more patients are moving from daily insulin shots to weekly GLP-1s. To offset that, it is selling its needles inside the boxes of generic GLP-1 drugs, already launched in India, Canada and Brazil and targeted at $100M+ in revenue by 2033. It is also launching cheaper needles and syringes for new markets and buying into other drug-delivery products beyond insulin. Quick Pitch $350m Market Cap/$1.62B Enterprise Value. Less than 3x P/E. Warren Buffett Owners Earnings of $122m ex SBC. Cut dividend switched to $100m Buyback authorization that's being used. CEO/CFO/Director/CLO all bought August 12th
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$BLBD ~$60 Blue Bird makes the yellow school buses. It’s one of only three big US makers (vs Thomas Built and IC Bus) and the leader in propane and electric buses. Districts buy them with local budgets and state/federal grants, and keep them ~15 years. ~$2.1B market cap, ~0 net debt. ~8.5x FY26 EBITDA ($247M guide), ~6% FCF yield. The bear case was EV subsidies running out. A VIC short at $57 in Aug ‘25 said FY27 EBITDA would fall to $92M. 15 months later: 776 EVs still in backlog, ~14% margins, price per bus +5.7%. 8x flat EBITDA = ~$57, so today’s price assumes zero growth. You get for free: A full year of Micro Bird, its small-bus arm ($16.5M EBITDA in its first quarter owned) Ford F-53/F-59 chassis deal (the frame RVs and delivery vans are built on), $1.4B added TAM, production starts 2028 Risks: legacy units -4.6% YTD, dealers say EV grant activity has “whittled down,” FY27 estimates getting cut. Q4 + FY27 guide ~Nov 23.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die: He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic. And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement. $AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts. I'd argue if a Neocloud has: - Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations - Existing contracted capacity + permitting - Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers. - Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance). Then I think they'll do just fine... However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high. For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets: As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal. Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears. And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others. Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia. Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs. But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds. And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.

Investor Letters

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Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
AEGXF · long

Aecon Group Inc.

Aecon Group’s long thesis targets 50-80% share-price upside over 6-12 months as the company shifts beyond a complex special situation.

AEGXF $3.9B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Adobe 3Q26 Update

Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth slowed to 9.3% excluding Semrush.

ADBE $93B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $3.3B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

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