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Friday, November 6, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 16 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root's $ROOT annualized premium run rate (premiums in force) fell 5.4% y/y in Q3, nearly double Q2's 2.8% drop, as larger carriers cut prices and Root gave up direct-to-consumer growth to protect returns. Policy growth offset the lower premium per policy in Q1, but policies in force were flat from June at 484k (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% y/y, to $1,441. $ROOT's gross accident period loss ratio (losses from crashes in the quarter over premium earned) rose 4.6 points y/y, to 61.1%, but only 1.6 points from Q3 2025's first estimate of 59.5%, which $ROOT has since revised down to 56.5%. The 10-Q blames (1) higher repair and medical costs per claim, (2) more frequent claims, and (3) a shift in channel mix, so claims costs are rising while premium per policy falls, though 61.1% is still inside $ROOT's 60-65% target range. The net combined ratio (losses plus expenses over premium; under 100% is an underwriting profit) improved 4.9 points y/y, to 97.2%, but ~4.2 points of that is Carvana warrant expense falling $15.3M after a one-time catch-up in Q3 2025, so the underlying gain was under a point. $ROOT's Q3 letter to shareholders says it repurchased $36.2M of stock "during the third quarter," but the 10-Q shows $15.5M in Q3, down from over $20M in Q2; the $36.2M is the total since the May authorization, with $38.8M left as of September 30. $ROOT also began deploying its new pricing model in Q4, which it expects to be its largest improvement in predictive power to date, and which it says lets it cut rates for better drivers while keeping its target returns. At ~$56/share, $ROOT trades at ~2.6x its $327.0M book value as of September 30, the low end of the $55-80 base case in my August 10 update, on a Q3 annualized ROE of ~18%, the low end of that case's 18-22%. So I read Q3 as $ROOT playing the soft market the way I expected, holding its margins and shrinking rather than buying growth, which keeps the stock priced as if it never grows again. What I'd want to see from here: 1) Policies: Whether policies in force grow from the flat 484k once the new pricing model reaches more of the book. 2) Partnerships: Whether new business through partners and independent agents, up 19% y/y in Q3 and now 52% of the total, keeps growing. 3) Loss ratio: Whether 2026's first estimates come down a year later, like Q1-Q3 2025 did.

Investor Letters

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GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

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