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Friday, November 6, 2026

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@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Ambarella $AMBA trades below my bear case, and below where it was before the Financial Times reported takeover talks. In my September 9 update on the edge AI chipmaker, my bear case was $72/share, 16.8% above its $61.67 close on November 2, and my base case $99, 60.5% above. Even the $57 case, where the multiple keeps compressing, is just 7.6% below. $AMBA is down 10.4% since that update, less than the 13.4% drop in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX). Neither $AMBA nor NXP Semiconductors $NXPI, the Dutch auto chipmaker, has confirmed the takeover talks the Financial Times reported on July 31. But on October 30, traders citing a Betaville alert said $AMBA’s board had picked $NXPI for exclusive talks after weighing multiple offers. At $61.67, $AMBA trades below its $74.09 close before the FT report, so the stock isn’t pricing in much of a deal, and a bid would be upside none of my cases counts. The company carries no debt and has $272.3M of cash and securities as of July 31, against ~$18M/quarter of FCF burn in the first half of FY2027. That’s more than three years of runway, so it’s unlikely to need to sell stock. The dilution comes from stock comp instead, which ran at 21.9% of revenue over the last 12 months (too high for my liking) and lifted the share count 3.4% in a year. Memory shortages at its camera customers are the risk to Q4, and the Q3 report, which $AMBA hasn’t scheduled yet, will show whether customers are cutting orders.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Ahead of 5 Nov, we are watching whether $IREN’s project delivery is reducing cash burn and whether further expansion has suitable funding in place. Longer debt maturities give IREN more time to complete projects and collect cash, reducing the urgency of returning to lenders during an unfavorable market. Its Microsoft GPU financing is closely matched to the associated contract and sits in a separate vehicle with limited recourse to the parent. We want that time used to establish operating cash generation that can support future investment and eventual debt repayment. At depressed valuations, our view is that IREN could provide a partial hedge against slower AI progress. If slower demand growth leads the largest cloud buyers to moderate construction, IREN could gain better access to GPUs and power for projects already sold. Earlier completion would start revenue sooner, and fewer new commitments would reduce the cash absorbed by construction, bringing positive free cash flow forward. This depends on existing contracts remaining sound. A collapse in customer demand or credit quality would, of course, hurt IREN.

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Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

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