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Friday, November 6, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$SIVE and $AAOI, yes for a 2027 timeframe. That's the nuance. Sivers you're coming on with 100M CW DFB laser capacity + 2 external foundries (maybe 300M in total), and all my supply chains mapping maps to larger hyperscaler suppliers. AAOI you're coming on with $471m transceiver revenue + 400K ELS units for 2028 timeframe. With hyperscalers + demand eating up all their capacity. There's just a $600m ATM which presents overhang near term. $NBIS already got re-rated but it's very positive upcoming for Q4 2026 (esp. with price hikes). Legacy memory like $ESMT + (some I haven't named yet) + regular memory names like Samsung, I do think will strongly outperform near term. And obviously CPUs names like $INTC $AMD $ARM as of recent.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.

Investor Letters

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Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

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