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Friday, November 6, 2026

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@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

When we write about insider transactions for our weekly Insider Weekends articles, we are often focused just as much as the insider buying the stock as the company they are buying. Earlier this year, when writing about insider purchases at GeneDX $WGS, we wrote the following about Keith Meister of Corvex Management and his excellent track record with insider purchases. Last night we noticed that he picked up an additional $51.74 million worth of $MGM stock now that the acquisition saga with People $PPLI is over.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Cyberoffense/defense is probably going to eat up a TON of compute and end up a continuous compute-intensive arms race. Even $AMZN CEO thinks cybersecurity would take up 20% of tokens consumed for the next year. It's literally a problem of how much you throw at compute for vulnerability discovery + model capability, from of my chats w/ Horizon3. And this is going to become a nation state issue, as seen with the implications already with PHP to vulnerabilities with banks/infrastructure from AI swarms. But people see this and throw money at $CRWD, $NET, and others, which I was saying was a bubble. If it's a compute issue, the economics go to the infra, from neoclouds to $NBIS to networking like $AAOI. We'll likely see swarms go wild from aggressor nation states in the next few years. And any country, whether that's Japan or EU that don't have their own capabilities might suffer severe damage. US spent $11T+ cumulatively (inflation adjusted) on Nuclear weapons and we're like ~$1.8T into the the "cyber-nuclear weapon" equivalent of that And this is not even including the endless other economic implications from AI in other fields from advancing cancer discovery to workforce automation with physical AI. It's hard to measure AI sustainability if $50K in compute spend from a foreign actor can take down $10B of your own infrastructure. AI has become a bipartisan national security issue, and even Democrats would not want China overtake the US in this field.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

With $AXTI, even if demand was cut 50%, they'd still likely be sold out. Since customers are asking for 3x+ their contracted volumes. I'd argue InP substrates are just as severe as lasers. In just 90 days, $AXTI literally went from: Q2 backlog: $100m Q3 backlog: $500m+ With an extra $300-$400m+ from ordinary business, not multi-year agreements from $LITE / $COHR. I'm sure there's some double ordering but the materials are just so cheap relative to overall BOM, that it's spare change.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

For companies like $SIVE / $AAOI, the demand imbalance for lasers are so severe That even a 20-30% overall demand reduction from a hypothetical DC slowdown would likely not eliminate the shortage. We're seeing this before the next architectural shifts, where $NVDA Jensen Huang expects 15x optical volume for CPO scale-up. And as more hyperscalers commit to NPO as seen with $LITE new $5B UHP laser contracts. I'd argue this is more nuanced since I can't say the same for finished 800G/1.6T pluggables or lower end 70mW-100mW laser ranges that are currently bottlenecks. But this argument is more toward higher spec lasers. $AAOI is vertically integrated and has 300-400 mW capabilities, so they have the capability to shift attention to merchant lasers over supplying end-to-end optical transceivers. $SIVE is more pure play on this laser bottleneck, but they have the capabilities for 200mW + higher margin multiwavelength NPO/CPO lasers. I'd argue this is specifically the case for bottlenecks where demand imbalances are so deep (creating higher long term visibility, such as HBM). Whether it's large body substrates from $ATS that's bottlenecking Marvell + $AMD or lasers from $LITE that are sold out into 2029. or liquid transformers that have 4-5 year lead times. They they would still sell out of capacity even if overall demand decreased. If markets de-risked, it would make sense to hit optical module manufacturing players, maybe server rack assembly, to companies that still require heavy financing like Neoclouds. And obviously haircut growth valuations (but not to the point where demand collapses to 0). Yet we're seeing everything in AI trade is getting lumped up together as something that requires heavy financing + not profitable.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

If a company is valued at $2B, has ~$1B in cash/inventory... And makes $354M FCF a quarter. Then returns 30-50% of FCF for dividends next year. I'd argue it's more of a matter of time before shareholder returns/fundamentals, (especially memory) overpower forced selling. But stock prices can look really dislocated from actual performance for periods of time, like now. Same with photonics, but that's more of a 2027-2028 growth type story with CPO + more optical content/xpu. Laser companies like $LITE, $AAOI, and potentially $SIVE depending on quals, would likely be printing few years after capacity expansion comes online. And it's already been largely funded... Lumentum with $NVDA + hyperscalers, AOI with $1.6B+ in ATMs, Sivers with 700M SEK from institutions. Compared to other sectors that still require a lot of capital for their buildouts.

Investor Letters

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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

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AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

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Value Investors Club 1 click

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

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John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

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