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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

With $AXTI, even if demand was cut 50%, they'd still likely be sold out. Since customers are asking for 3x+ their contracted volumes. I'd argue InP substrates are just as severe as lasers. In just 90 days, $AXTI literally went from: Q2 backlog: $100m Q3 backlog: $500m+ With an extra $300-$400m+ from ordinary business, not multi-year agreements from $LITE / $COHR. I'm sure there's some double ordering but the materials are just so cheap relative to overall BOM, that it's spare change.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Many may think the portability of the Ares financing may point towards Icahn acquiring $MNRO. However, I believe it strongly points of a sale to MAVIS! Most may immediately dismiss this since Mavis is disqualified to be the "New Sponsor" since it's an operating company. However - Mavis is owned by US-based PE firms - an investor group led by BayPine, along with TSG Consumer Partners, a holding company controlled by the Sorbaro brothers and Golden Gate Capital. They easily clear the size test (at least $1.5 billion of AUM for the lead firm) and the location test (US-based). The definition also seems to anticipate holding-company structures: after a permitted deal, a parent company in which the "New Sponsor" holds the largest stake doesn’t count as a change of control. Why does this matter? Either BayPine or TSG could as as the sponsor and then put $MNRO alongside Mavis under a structure that they control. The probability that Monro gets sold to Mavis (at least in part) is very high in my opinion. If Icahn gets involved, I think it's more likely that since Icahn still owns the Pep Boys land that he sold to Mavis that he potentially comes in and acquires the $MNRO land with the rest of the company going to Mavis.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

For companies like $SIVE / $AAOI, the demand imbalance for lasers are so severe That even a 20-30% overall demand reduction from a hypothetical DC slowdown would likely not eliminate the shortage. We're seeing this before the next architectural shifts, where $NVDA Jensen Huang expects 15x optical volume for CPO scale-up. And as more hyperscalers commit to NPO as seen with $LITE new $5B UHP laser contracts. I'd argue this is more nuanced since I can't say the same for finished 800G/1.6T pluggables or lower end 70mW-100mW laser ranges that are currently bottlenecks. But this argument is more toward higher spec lasers. $AAOI is vertically integrated and has 300-400 mW capabilities, so they have the capability to shift attention to merchant lasers over supplying end-to-end optical transceivers. $SIVE is more pure play on this laser bottleneck, but they have the capabilities for 200mW + higher margin multiwavelength NPO/CPO lasers. I'd argue this is specifically the case for bottlenecks where demand imbalances are so deep (creating higher long term visibility, such as HBM). Whether it's large body substrates from $ATS that's bottlenecking Marvell + $AMD or lasers from $LITE that are sold out into 2029. or liquid transformers that have 4-5 year lead times. They they would still sell out of capacity even if overall demand decreased. If markets de-risked, it would make sense to hit optical module manufacturing players, maybe server rack assembly, to companies that still require heavy financing like Neoclouds. And obviously haircut growth valuations (but not to the point where demand collapses to 0). Yet we're seeing everything in AI trade is getting lumped up together as something that requires heavy financing + not profitable.
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$STIM is up a lot. It should be up more. Neurostar back to growth +2%, call comments said 2027 will grow. New go to market is working - congrats to mgmt n phenomenal execution. Greenbrook accelerated. Still with lower occupancy on some units - lots of room to improve that. GAAP ebit profitability looks possible in 2027 (gross margins inflecting) and definitely in 2028. Cash flow+. Market still gives ZERO implied credit for the SOTP on Greenbrook even if we use a 5.5x GP multiple on Neurostar, below $BWAY at 7-8x. And then we have the $CMPS distribution partnership in 2027, even without which this is a $6-7 fair value sooner than later. They continue to execute on the growth story then this is $10+ in 12-24 months Not advice. We are long. That could change at any time.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

If a company is valued at $2B, has ~$1B in cash/inventory... And makes $354M FCF a quarter. Then returns 30-50% of FCF for dividends next year. I'd argue it's more of a matter of time before shareholder returns/fundamentals, (especially memory) overpower forced selling. But stock prices can look really dislocated from actual performance for periods of time, like now. Same with photonics, but that's more of a 2027-2028 growth type story with CPO + more optical content/xpu. Laser companies like $LITE, $AAOI, and potentially $SIVE depending on quals, would likely be printing few years after capacity expansion comes online. And it's already been largely funded... Lumentum with $NVDA + hyperscalers, AOI with $1.6B+ in ATMs, Sivers with 700M SEK from institutions. Compared to other sectors that still require a lot of capital for their buildouts.

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