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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Merion Road and Blue Hill are going activist at United Bancorporation of Alabama $UBAB, looking for board seats. They see UBAB at a key moment, needing better capital allocation, tighter expenses, and a clearer strategy. Still, the board hasn't acted on their proposals despite years of engagement. They're also looking for a $40m tender (~17% of the market cap). These guys hold just 2%, so UBAB basically replied, 'yeah, that's not going to happen,' but this ECIP winner could indeed do more.

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VSH Earnings Review

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VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

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Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
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SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

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