Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$PEGA numbers begin the software back to earth story....expect sick to be down significantly tomorrow (it never trades true until the open). The backlog is down QoQ and we are talking 6% ACV now versus guide for 15% at the start of the year. Without a total break from recent trends they will need an absolute monstrous Q4 (comping against a very strong Q4 number yoy coming up) otherwise the backlog number will drop out and that will move from an inflated 15% yoy (from the Q4 25') probably to low single digits or worse..... Big portions of software is in trouble, this is the very beginning
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

On the public company side, I have been looking into the boring company Mueller Water Products $MWA that makes things like fire hydrants. Yes, there is a data center angle but that part of their business is currently small. It showed up on my radar because of insider buying by an independent board member though a 10b5-1 plan. This director previously spent nearly 24 years at Morgan Stanley rising up to the position of Managing Director and Co-Head of Mergers & Acquisitions (Americas). Has an MBA from @UChicago and currently teaches at University of Virginia.

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 6 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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