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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties remaining and shared-services costs running through…

SITC $192M
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

Just a bit of my thoughts on the AI datacenter buildout: Texas has already stopped new data centers back in August, and that's the most important fact the market missed today. 1/ Abbott paused it in August. ERCOT stopped energizing new data centers of 75 MW or more and shelved a ~200 GW study batch. TCEQ stopped issuing permits. Hinojosa's moratorium will keep the existing pause in place on New permits instead of lifting it. She also said it targets new permits, not projects already under construction. So that just means next project goes to a friendly locale, not Texas. 2/ Ohio was already moving. DeWine froze the data center sales-tax exemption for new projects back in June. Acton's conditional moratorium is a pay your own power costs, use union labor, build on brownfields. That's a cost hit, not a ban outright. 3/ Congress can't ban anything. The Sanders/AOC moratorium bill would face a Trump veto through Jan 2029. 4/ What's already built or nearly built keeps going: • Stargate Abilene: 4 of 8 buildings live, the rest due this month • Fairwater Atlanta: ~636 MW running • Rainier Indiana: ~1 GW running • Hyperion Louisiana: not in play at all About 56.7 GW is under construction nationally and largely outside the pledges. 5/ Demand didn't change this week: • $ANET Q3 revenue $3.66b, +58.5% y/y, $360m above guide • $CLS guiding 2027 to $40b, roughly double 2026 • $MOD data center sales +95%, record backlog, a $4b+ deal for 2027–29 • Hyperscalers are on pace for $803b–$828b of 2026 capex and they're guiding 2027 higher 6/ The market half-figured it out. Texas-heavy builders and power names fell 7–23% ($HUT -23%, $VST -15%). Suppliers with national backlogs barely moved ($ANET -0.4%, $NVDA -0.8%). $NUAI is a zero now for sure. 7/ Where it's real: new 2027–28 capacity in TX/OH/GA gets slower and pricier, so it will shift to different locations. New projects go to friendly locales, TX/OH/GA lose out. 8/ AI component suppliers are still maxed out for the next few years, that demand doesn’t change, just where they ship it to does. 9/ Neoclouds still suck. Ain’t nothing gonna change that.
@DeepSailCapital 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

Just a bit of my thoughts on AI: Texas has already stopped new data centers back in August, and that's the most important fact the market missed today. 1/ Abbott paused it in August. ERCOT stopped energizing new data centers of 75 MW or more and shelved a ~200 GW study batch. TCEQ stopped issuing permits. Hinojosa's moratorium will keep the existing pause in place on New permits instead of lifting it. She also said it targets new permits, not projects already under construction. So that just means next project goes to a friendly locale, not Texas. 2/ Ohio was already moving. DeWine froze the data center sales-tax exemption for new projects back in June. Acton's conditional moratorium is a pay your own power costs, use union labor, build on brownfields. That's a cost hit, not a ban outright. 3/ Congress can't ban anything. The Sanders/AOC moratorium bill would face a Trump veto through Jan 2029. 4/ What's already built or nearly built keeps going: • Stargate Abilene: 4 of 8 buildings live, the rest due this month • Fairwater Atlanta: ~636 MW running • Rainier Indiana: ~1 GW running • Hyperion Louisiana: not in play at all About 56.7 GW is under construction nationally and largely outside the pledges. 5/ Demand didn't change this week: • $ANET Q3 revenue $3.66b, +58.5% y/y, $360m above guide • $CLS guiding 2027 to $40b, roughly double 2026 • $MOD data center sales +95%, record backlog, a $4b+ deal for 2027–29 • Hyperscalers are on pace for $803b–$828b of 2026 capex and they're guiding 2027 higher 6/ The market half-figured it out. Texas-heavy builders and power names fell 7–23% ($HUT -23%, $VST -15%). Suppliers with national backlogs barely moved ($ANET -0.4%, $NVDA -0.8%). $NUAI is a zero now for sure. 7/ Where it's real: new 2027–28 capacity in TX/OH/GA gets slower and pricier, so it will shift to different locations. New projects go to friendly locales, TX/OH/GA lose out. 8/ AI component suppliers are still maxed out for the next few years, that demand doesn’t change, just where they ship it to does. 9/ Neoclouds still suck. Ain’t nothing gonna change that.
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Just a bit of my thoughts on AI: If AI buildout is really materially slowed down it’s a death sentence to American Economy / our AI pole position in the world. AI datacenter buildout saved us from a recession a few years ago, it is the only thing holding us back from one right now. An extremely bad outcome is China takes the lead in AI, US businesses use said Chinese AI to cut US jobs and the money saved is shipped to China, so we are net negative as a country. Now on to why I don’t think AI build cadence will be materially changed and it’s all posturing / the easy trade for tourists. Texas has already stopped new data centers back in August, and that's the most important fact the market missed today. 1/ Abbott paused it in August. ERCOT stopped energizing new data centers of 75 MW or more and shelved a ~200 GW study batch. TCEQ stopped issuing permits. Hinojosa's moratorium will keep the existing pause in place on New permits instead of lifting it. She also said it targets new permits, not projects already under construction. So that just means next project goes to a friendly locale, not Texas. 2/ Ohio was already moving. DeWine froze the data center sales-tax exemption for new projects back in June. Acton's conditional moratorium is a pay your own power costs, use union labor, build on brownfields. That's a cost hit, not a ban outright. 3/ Congress can't ban anything. The Sanders/AOC moratorium bill would face a Trump veto through Jan 2029. 4/ What's already built or nearly built keeps going: • Stargate Abilene: 4 of 8 buildings live, the rest due this month • Fairwater Atlanta: ~636 MW running • Rainier Indiana: ~1 GW running • Hyperion Louisiana: not in play at all About 56.7 GW is under construction nationally and largely outside the pledges. 5/ Demand didn't change this week: • $ANET Q3 revenue $3.66b, +58.5% y/y, $360m above guide • $CLS guiding 2027 to $40b, roughly double 2026 • $MOD data center sales +95%, record backlog, a $4b+ deal for 2027–29 • Hyperscalers are on pace for $803b–$828b of 2026 capex and they're guiding 2027 higher 6/ The market half-figured it out. Texas-heavy builders and power names fell 7–23% ($HUT -23%, $VST -15%). Suppliers with national backlogs barely moved ($ANET -0.4%, $NVDA -0.8%). $NUAI is a zero now for sure. 7/ Where it's real: new 2027–28 capacity in TX/OH/GA gets slower and pricier, so it will shift to different locations. New projects go to friendly locales, TX/OH/GA lose out. 8/ AI component suppliers are still maxed out for the next few years, that demand doesn’t change, just where they ship it to does. 9/ Neoclouds still suck. Ain’t nothing gonna change that.
@DOMOCAPITAL 2 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Fantastic quarter from $ALTO - massive beat. 45Z credits continue to expand. Columbia now at $0.30 / gallon! Looks like a run rate of >$7M a quarter now. Management confirmed they expect exports to Europe to resume in 2027 - a large reason being the depreciation of the Brazilian Real post Brazilian elections... ALTO Adjusted EBITDA was pretty stunning. Despite lower crush margins they essentially matched Q3 2026. They can now produce profitable quarters, quarter after quarter, even if crush margins are low. The company paid off another $6.5M in debt and has now paid off $26.5M YTD on a loan that has a 10% interest rate. Sounds like Pekin will be at either a $0.30 or $0.40 / gallon run-rate in 2027 as they have also been able to partner with farmers to purchase low carbon corn. Some of these additional profits will be shared with the farmer. Sounds like we'll also get an update soon on Pekin CO2 monetization opportunities to get the 45Q utilization credit on currently vented CO2 from the wet mills. Columbia is also having the extra CO2 storage tank installed in Q4. Management has yet to guide the additional millions the Columbia plant will earn in 2027 due to this - would expect an update on the next call. Fantastic earnings, fantastic call... stock should be much higher. Management additionally confirmed that zero shares were sold using the ATM and that it wasn't contemplated at all even when the shares were in the $5-$6 range and certainly not now. This should be of zero concern at these levels.

Investor Letters

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Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $371M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $348M
Value Investors Club 1 click

FrontView REIT Investment Update

FrontView REIT remains discounted to estimated NAV after a 25% gain, while 19 asset sales at 6.8% cap rates and 98% occupancy support…

FVR $511M
Real Assets, Real Value

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $649M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 5 clicks

(MGGA) Make Guns Great Again

Ruger trades at a $468 million enterprise value, about 7 times normalized free cash flow, with $101 million cash and no debt as gun demand…

RGR $721M
XIX Value

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