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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

If a company is valued at $2B, has ~$1B in cash/inventory... And makes $354M FCF a quarter. Then returns 30-50% of FCF for dividends next year. I'd argue it's more of a matter of time before shareholder returns/fundamentals, (especially memory) overpower forced selling. But stock prices can look really dislocated from actual performance for periods of time, like now. Same with photonics, but that's more of a 2027-2028 growth type story with CPO + more optical content/xpu. Laser companies like $LITE, $AAOI, and potentially $SIVE depending on quals, would likely be printing few years after capacity expansion comes online. And it's already been largely funded... Lumentum with $NVDA + hyperscalers, AOI with $1.6B+ in ATMs, Sivers with 700M SEK from institutions. Compared to other sectors that still require a lot of capital for their buildouts.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Little rant, but to show you how rampant deleveraging has become: - $CIFR is worth 44% LESS than when they announced their initial $GOOGL / $AMZN colo deals. - $AAOI is now ~ the same price BEFORE they secured major hyperscaler orders, raised $1.6B for capacity expansion and gave their suprising initial -> $378M+ projection -> ~$471M revenue forecast. - $ESMT ($2B MC) is the perfect example representing the memory sector. B-BUT AI NAMES ARE NOT PROFITABLE??? Q3 Earnings: $526.2M gross profit, $330M net income. To give you a comparison of what that looks like, the net income of $CRWD ($251B MC) was literally $5.3M. $NOW ($113B MC) was $277M. $TSLA ($1.5T) was $787M. Different industries/durability, but if we care about what's actually hitting the balance sheet: ESMT is sitting on ~$937M in net assets ($740M net cash, $278M inventory, etc), so EV goes down to $1.2B ish. Annualized P/E: 1.6x... People keep saying "Peak Earnings", "Cyclical", "no moat" but who in the world would want to build an old ass DDR2 line + fab and qualify it? From ESMT commentary, we'll likely see ASP hikes Q4 to make up for potential consumer demand dropping. And further supply tightening with Samsung/Micron discontinuing DDR2/DDR3 lines. Winbond was leaving DDR2 lines to pursue higher end memory. People keep saying China, but even Gigadevice was leaving DDR3 to pursue higher end memory. "DDR3's share of our DRAM revenue will continue to decline until we eventually stop selling DDR3 products."Nanya discontinued DDR2 lines few days ago. This is while majority of ESMT revenue comes from DDR2/DDR3. In ~3 quarters of constant earnings, ESMT would have more assets than their entire MC. Who is going to stop buying $40 DLink cameras if their $3 memory cost goes to $3.5? $MU / Samsung / $SKHY / $SNDK share similar parallels where durability is contractually enforced via take/pay LTAs with price floors. But markets are pretending that it just won't happen, despite Samsung already being the most profitable company in the world. Markets should care about how much FCF is actually hitting the balance sheets, but are just indiscriminately selling off everything now. But continue rotating capital into 47x P/E companies like Walmart or 180x forward P/E names like $CRWD.

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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks
PRIM · long

Primoris Services CORP

Primoris Services, a $5 billion EPC contractor, has fallen about 60% from its peak.

PRIM $3.9B
Value Investors Club

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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