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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Energy Fuels' $UUUU made $54.86 of gross profit on each pound of uranium it sold in Q3, nearly 3x the $19.16 of a year ago, as its realized price rose to $88.90/lb and its cost fell to $34.04/lb. Grade at its Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona recovered to 1.04% from Q2's 0.71%, as management expected, but $UUUU mined just 385k pounds in Q3, so its unchanged 2.0-2.5M guide needs 875k-1.375M mined in Q4, more than double Q3's pace. Heavy rare earth prices jumped in Q3, with European dysprosium oxide up 150% to $3,500/kg and terbium oxide up 42% to $6,745/kg ($8,250 as of October 30), the two oxides $UUUU's ~$104M heavy rare earth circuit is being built to make from as early as Q1 2028. At October 30 prices, a full year at that circuit's capacity, up to 21 tonnes of terbium oxide and 122 of dysprosium oxide, would sell for ~$600M, if prices hold and the Donald Project, an Australian mineral sands mine it's earning into, gets built to supply the feed. The net loss tripled to $52.4M, but $28.0M of it was other loss, mostly mark-to-market losses on its securities portfolio, and $9.0M was deal costs. $UUUU sold no stock through its at-the-market (ATM) program in Q3, but buying VAC, the German magnet maker it agreed to acquire in June, still takes ~$718M of cash at a close expected as soon as Q1 2027. That cash would turn ~$156M of net cash ($856M of cash and securities less the $700M convertible) into ~$560M of net debt, unless $UUUU sells more stock first. At ~$7.18/share, $UUUU is a ~$1.90B company, below the $8-10 bear case in my June deep dive and below the $2.0-2.5B I put on just the uranium business plus net cash in my August 10 update. So I read $7.18 as the market pricing the VAC cash call and more ATM sales, not the uranium margins or the rare earth prices, which both moved $UUUU's way in Q3. Some questions on my mind: 1) Funding: How much of the new $500M ATM $UUUU sells below $8, and whether the $725M government loan finalizes first. 2) Mining: Whether Q4 mined pounds reach the 875k-1.375M that the 2.0-2.5M guide needs. 3) Donald: Whether the Donald Project reaches a final investment decision by year-end, since its monazite sand is the feed the heavy rare earth circuit is sized for.

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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks
PRIM · long

Primoris Services CORP

Primoris Services, a $5 billion EPC contractor, has fallen about 60% from its peak.

PRIM $3.9B
Value Investors Club

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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