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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3 margins and non-GLP biologics demand.

STVN $5.4B
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From X

@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$SSTK: $4.14, $153M mkt cap, ~$317M EV, ~$90M of TTM FCF. That's ~59% of the market cap in one year of free cash flow, ~3.5x EV/FCF, and 0.17x sales. Down 78% this year. This is the crazy one. Shutterstock sells stock photos, footage and music to marketers, and AI image generators are eating that business. Revenue is down 11% to $901M. The Getty merger died in July after the UK regulator demanded a sale of Shutterstock's editorial business and Getty walked away. Getty then filed Chapter 11 on Oct 21, and Shutterstock suspended its dividend to pay down debt. Then on Oct 28 founder Jon Oringer came back as CEO and Chairman. He owns ~30%, and his stake is down ~80% this year. X is split: one guy called him checked out since 2020 and "an even worse COB," another called it the start of a serious shake-up. Either way, the founder who owns almost a third of the company now has every reason to fix it or sell it. Value Line still rates Financial Strength B. You're paying 3.5x free cash flow for a melting ice cube, so the question is how fast it melts. If FCF falls 20% a year it still roughly pays back the whole EV in about five years. Q3 is Nov 5. Size it like a lottery ticket. Not investment advice. Do your own work.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$TBBK: $46.75, $1.91B mkt cap, 8.2x trailing earnings and ~6.6x the new 2027 guide ($7.00-7.20), a 36% ROE, and 11% fewer shares than a year ago. $200M of buybacks this year, about 10% of the market cap. The Bancorp is the bank behind a lot of the fintech cards in your wallet. Fintechs bring the customers and Bancorp holds the deposits, which cost it almost nothing. Q3 EPS was $1.53, up 30%, fintech fees grew 19%, and payment volume grew 23% to $54B. The stock still fell 7.5% Friday because they cut the 2027 target from $8.10-8.30 to $7.00-7.20. In September Chime agreed to buy Stride Bank, its other partner bank, and the market read that as Chime eventually leaving. The bears have been loud and sometimes right. A VIC short in Dec 2023 at $38.93 called the earnings unsustainable and the accounting aggressive. On X, one guy called the guide-down "easy to call" before it happened, and others flagged the small business lending exit, layoffs, and a lending head leaving with a $2.5M package. But since that short the share count has gone from 54M to 41M, and the stock is higher. Even on the reset numbers you're paying ~6.6x 2027 and ~5.8x their preliminary 2028, and they plan to buy back ~100% of net income from 2027 on. Value Line cut it to Technical 5 on Friday, so nobody wants it. The whole question is how much Chime volume leaves. Management calls the new 2027 number a baseline, so watch whether it holds.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$ANGI: $5.99, $243M mkt cap, $189M of cash vs $422M of debt, ~$477M EV, ~4.3x EBITDA. Shares down 16% in a year and the stock down 55%. Angi is HomeAdvisor plus Angie's List, the place you find a plumber, spun out of IAC in April 2025. I won't pretend it's clean. Q2 revenue fell 11% to $248M, service requests fell 6%, guidance got pulled, and management pushed a return to growth into 2027. Refinancing the bonds due within a year is the top priority. So why is it here? JLHR wrote it up on VIC in May 2025 at $15.75 at 6-6.5x EBITDA. His point was that everyone was staring at revenue and missing how much better the earnings power had gotten. It's 4.3x now. Since then the share count is down 16%, BlackRock just disclosed a 12.5% stake, and July's EBITDA margin ran ~700bp above Q2. They also bought Contractor+, a back-office app used by 50K contractors, to make Angi part of the pro's daily workflow. Value Line gives it a 5 for Performance and a 5 for Safety, the scariest costume in the issue. Investor day is Nov 17. If the refi gets done and revenue stops falling, you're paying ~4x EBITDA for one of the best-known brands in home services. If not, it's a lot of debt for a $243M equity.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TZOO: $5.16, $53M mkt cap, ~$8M of cash vs ~$6M of debt, ~$51M EV. Shares down 12% in a year, and insiders own 36%. Travelzoo is the travel-deals email your parents still open. 30 million members, founded by Ralph Bartel, and his family still runs it. It's halfway through switching from advertising to paid "Club" memberships. GAAP makes that look awful because the cost of signing members is expensed up front, while the fees come in over 12 months. Q3 revenue was $22.9M, up 3%, with a wider loss but record paid-member adds. clarksquarecap wrote it up on VIC in April at $5.92. He argued it screens badly on every metric while the economics get better, and estimated ~$1.40 of EPS by 2027, around $20 at 15x. He put the downside at 10-15% at a trough EV/sales. After Q3, people on X said the same thing: "GPM back up, CAC down, and record acquisition of paying members," and one called it "5x P/E diluted on 2028 numbers." Value Line has Financial Strength at C++, but it raised the Technical rank yesterday. It's tiny and illiquid, and the whole thesis depends on renewal rates nobody has seen yet. The first cohort renewing is the catalyst. Size it like a $53M company.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$NTB: $56.15, $2.22B mkt cap, 9.8x trailing and 8.1x forward earnings, a 21% ROE, a 3.6% dividend, and 5.4% of the shares bought back in the last year. ~2.2x tangible book of $25.32. Butterfield has been banking in Bermuda since 1858 and also runs trust and wealth businesses in Cayman and the Channel Islands. Offshore deposits are sticky and cheap, and the trust business is a fee stream that doesn't care about rate cuts. Q3 core EPS was $1.58, flat with Q2, revenue beat at $161.9M, and tangible book dipped 3.3% on bond marks. gary9 wrote it up on VIC in 2017 at $33.94 and nailed why it stays cheap: "NTB screens as expensive on a P/B multiple, while the higher ROEs are dismissed due to a 0% tax rate." Nine years later the same thing is true. 2.2x tangible book looks expensive for a bank, until you see it earns 21% on equity and sends ~9% of its market cap back every year in dividends and buybacks. Value Line rates it Safety 2 with a Price Stability of 75, the steadiest name in the issue. The thing to watch is taxes. If Bermuda's global minimum tax ever reaches a bank this size, the 0% rate goes away, and so does part of the ROE.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$EVER: $23.51, $828M mkt cap, $192M of cash and ~$2M of debt, ~$638M EV. $114M of TTM net income, $95M of FCF, 7.6x earnings, and a new $50M buyback. EverQuote is the site you end up on when you google "cheap car insurance." It sells those shoppers to Progressive, State Farm and thousands of agents. The business swings with the auto insurance cycle. When carriers are losing money they cut ad budgets to almost nothing, and when they're making money they spend. My favorite VIC find this week: Arturo wrote EVER up as a short in May 2023 at $6.31, calling it lead gen "that has no moat" that "seems to have lost momentum." He was probably right about the moat and very wrong about the cycle. Carriers repriced, got profitable and turned the spend back on, and the stock is up ~3.7x since. That's the whole game with cyclicals: buy them when the people writing short reports are making sense. On Oct 21 the board added a $50M buyback, ~6% of the market cap, and Hedgeye pegs it at ~4.7x 2027 EBITDA. The risk is the same as 2023, a soft auto market. But you're paying 7.6x earnings with 23% of the market cap in cash to find out.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$UPWK: $9.15, $1.14B mkt cap, $614M of cash and securities vs $379M of debt, ~$907M EV. ~$204M of TTM FCF, an ~18% FCF yield, 7x forward earnings, and 5% fewer shares than a year ago. Upwork is where companies hire freelancers for code, design, writing, and more and more, cleaning up after AI. The market decided agents replace freelancers and took the stock down 46% in a year. The business is shrinking a little, not collapsing: last quarter GSV fell 4% and active clients went from 796K to 763K, but spend per client rose 5% to $5,230 and adj EBITDA grew 12% to $64M at a 33% margin. The best insight came from the CEO, not an analyst. Hayden Brown said requests like "turn my vibe-coded concept into a production website" and "humanize the translation output from this AI" are growing. felton2 wrote it up on VIC in Feb 2025 at $15.56 and called the AI fear the entry point. It's $9.15 now with more cash flow, and one guy on X summed it up: 16x forward sales in 2021, single-digit forward earnings in 2026. Management is acting like owners. They bought back $110M (8.3M shares) in the first half and have $254M left on the authorization, about 22% of the market cap. Value Line has it at Technical 5, so nobody is chasing it. If revenue just stops shrinking, you own a net-cash marketplace at 7x earnings that's eating its own shares.

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Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $15M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
PRIM · long

Primoris Services CORP

Primoris Services, a $5 billion EPC contractor, has fallen about 60% from its peak.

PRIM $3.9B
Value Investors Club

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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