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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3 margins and non-GLP biologics demand.

STVN $5.4B
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Calvin Blissett on X

@MBoquard Thanks Michel. My take on $ANGI Q3: The quarter was better than the stock implies. • Revenue $242M, -9% YoY (improved from -11% in Q2), in line with consensus • Adj. EBITDA $42.2M vs ~$29M expected, 17.4% margin • Proprietary service requests flat at 3.8M, revenue per lead +10%, Large Pro revenue +20%+ • EPS missed ($0.03 vs $0.11), but that's non-cash accelerated depreciation from retiring the legacy platform The balance sheet isn't the problem I made it out to be: • $202.5M cash vs $398.7M of 3.875% notes due Aug 2028, not within a year • $175M revolver undrawn to 2030 • Bought back ~$100M of bonds below par YTD ($8.4M gain) • ~$196M net debt, roughly 1.5x EBITDA • At $5.99: ~$246M mkt cap, ~$440M EV, ~2.6x Q3 run-rate EBITDA, ~3.4x trailing The real problem is supply, not demand: • Avg monthly active pros 101K, -14% • Monthly pro churn 6.7% vs 5.9% a year ago • Leads -18%, network service requests -33% (partly deliberate cuts to low-quality traffic) • 9M FCF -$7M vs +$34M last year. Operating cash flow $38M vs $93M of adj. EBITDA, with $45M of capex during the platform migration • The 300-role cut ($50-60M run-rate savings) comes with $18-30M of restructuring charges through 1H27 What the AlphaSense expert calls say: • Former Angi VP (Oct 12): recent declines are "primarily due to a shrinking base of service providers, not a loss of homeowner demand or LLM-driven disruption." • Former Angi GM (Sep 22): believes the business "has already hit its lowest point" and sees "limited downside risk from current levels." Blames a poorly executed rebrand for the lost organic traffic. • Former Angi Director of Product (Sep 21): bearish. Sees conversational AI as "an existential threat" that could bypass marketplaces entirely. • Nextdoor marketing lead (Oct 14): Google AI Overviews pose "a significant threat to Angi's organic traffic," and Thumbtack is outspending Angi on brand. • Former Angi VP of Finance (Oct 12): skeptical the international margins can be replicated in the US; integration and cost work is "far from complete." How I see it: If pros stabilize, capex drops now that the migration is done, and they keep retiring notes below par, I get to roughly $60-80M of FCF in 2027 on a ~$246M market cap. That's my estimate, not guidance. If churn keeps rising and AI starts showing up in proprietary service requests, the 17% margin is just cost cuts on a shrinking business. What I'm watching: tomorrow's call (new CEO Mike Steib, ~45 days in) and the Nov 17 investor day for 2027 targets, pro count, capex and what they do with the cash. Not investment advice.

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Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $17M
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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
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Short LUMN

Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.

LUMN $4.9B
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Solitron Devices (SODI)

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