Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook
Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.
Monday, November 2, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Lee Roach on X
Why are coal names down across the board? I see pricing up. Is market nervous about contracting season? What am I missing. Like $BTU here. Any other ones I should spend time on?
John_Hempton on X
@AMCOverNoise I am glad you have the skill to buy gems like $AMC
John_Hempton on X
@224osk It is very sad. But I will die happy as you are buying $AMC.
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X
@citrini New fear for $COLD and $LINE unlocked
SG on X
@kiwicarrotcake still might be a good gamble. Just saying that sure as night follows day, $OKLO will spend some of its kitty and probably not wisely.
A Capital on X
Interesting underperformance in $MGM vs. comps… https://t.co/oOOmxIWY7Y
John_Hempton on X
So glad to see $AMC up so much. Apes are buying. They deserve it.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds October 2026 AAK $4.7BVIMGF $2.2B
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities 3Q 2026 LASR $2.1BTWST $9.3B
- Palm Harbour Capital third quarter 2026 CEVMF $5.3BCIRSA $3.4B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 AAP $2.9BCUUCF $5.3B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.7BCALY $2.8B
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 AVOL $8.1BFCODF $4.5B
- Broyhill Asset Management third quarter 2026 VVV $4.3B
- Alluvial Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.6B
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Terry Chrisomalis 2 clicks
This Week in Special Situations: Mattel, Winnebago, PayPal
Mattel, Winnebago and PayPal lead 37 special situations spanning activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and strategic alternatives.
Kratos: Strong Organic Growth And Production Ramp-Ups Support A Buy Rating
Kratos posted Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 30.5% to $458.8 million as unmanned systems, propulsion and defense-electronics production ramps…
Arizona Equity Research 
Group 1 Automotive (GPI): Q3 2026 Earnings
Group 1 Automotive trades at 5.5 times earnings as aging gasoline vehicles and EV repairs sustain service profits; insiders bought while…
Enova International (ENVA): Leading US Online lender with excellent track record
Enova’s Q3 2026 revenue exceeded $1 billion as originations rose 31%, while its failed Grasshopper Bank bid drove a 23% one-day stock…
AppFolio 3Q26 Business Recap: AI Agents Support Growth
AppFolio grew third-quarter revenue 19% as Realm-X AI agents gained adoption, lifting guidance to $1.122 billion to $1.127 billion.
TTM Technologies: The Market Already Caught On To Peak Numbers
TTM Technologies’ record Q3 and data-center exposure drove a 27.7% stock drop as investors questioned debt-funded growth, leverage and the…
Nicolas Bolsinger 1 click
Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXIII
Monte Investments updates Carpenter Technology after a 25% sell-off, tracks EQT’s $12.83 billion Range Resources acquisition and assesses…
The Data Center Bridge
Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…
RXO · short Rxo INC
RXO, a top-five U.S. freight broker, carries roughly 5x LTM EBITDA leverage and undisclosed off-balance-sheet liabilities after its 2022…
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings
Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…
Research & Analysis | AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR): MRO Holdings Reshapes the Margin Profile
AAR’s $1.8 billion acquisition of a 65% stake in MRO Holdings adds widebody aircraft maintenance and targets a 19% to 20% EBITDA margin by…
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings
The Trade Desk's Q2 revenue grew 3% to $715 million as Q3 guidance called for a year-over-year decline; TTD has fallen over 90% from its…
Belden Inc.: The Ruckus Debt Looks Scarier Than The Math
Belden targets net leverage of 2.9x by 2027 from 3.9x, using RUCKUS's 65%+ gross margins and free cash flow to reduce debt.
Lee Bailey 
Crocs: Double-Digit Buyback Yield (Ticker: CROX)
Crocs has $2 billion of buyback authorization, more than a third of its market cap, as North American sales stabilize and HeyDude drags on…
Mattel: M&A Buzz And A CEO Change Create Substantial Uncertainty
Mattel rose 19% on takeover speculation, but a potential $20-per-share bid, margin pressure and CEO transition leave its standalone…
Seeking Profits 
How Ethos Sold Wall Street on AI While Powering an Analog Boiler Room
Ethos Technologies ($LIFE) sells AI-driven life insurance while relying heavily on multilevel marketing agencies using aggressive cold…
Karman Holdings q2’26 Earnings Update
Karman Holdings reported 58% Q2 revenue growth, $1.3 billion backlog and margin expansion while replacing leadership and remediating…
Thursday Tailwinds #9: 1 October 2026
Indian bearing suppliers gain a US tariff advantage as SKF, Schaeffler and Timken build export capacity and source local rings, cages and…
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