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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

Last major $SIVE disclosure was 100M CW DFB laser capacity Q4 2027. And a new foundry partner (that makes 2 including Win Semi). Expected $JBL revenue coming in H1 2027 (with lasers for Jabil's 1.6T LRO scaling up H2 2027). There's channel checks along the way like CIOE where Sivers was engaged with Chinese pluggable makers + laser ASPs being raised. 70mW/100mW ranges were the most tight to Chinese pluggable makers, which was surprising. Biggest industry read through was $LITE selling out into 2029, making agreements for 2030, and having hyperscalers pay for capacity expansion for 2031. I don't think anyone has enough information to do any sort of accurate modeling for $SIVE like you can for $AAOI given they don't release product breakdown + capacity targets by quarter. The 200mW NPO lasers Sivers is sampling is likely different ASP than your 70mW lasers shipped to pluggable makers. And your custom CPO lasers are different pricing too. Like all sampling/qualification players from $AEHR to $AAOI back in 2025, usually the risk/reward comes in whether qualifications convert and what new customers they have, which is always a risk. In a bull case, if $SIVE comes online with 300m laser supply (2:1 implied ratio, already has "tremendous" supply online from likely US fab) during a structural shortage. Pluggable players like $JBL, 6 other vendors. $GFS as the reference design laser for their CPO/NPO platform. Your minor players vendors like $POET, $AEVA and other players end up scaling. And all the other custom products they hinted they were working on in the past for CPO years back. I think the probability that they cook is higher since there's so many ongoing qualifications during a bottleneck. We've already seen ownership changes from Swedish investors to US/International retail from $SIVE shareholder disclosures. My guess is that trends institutional from retail before US listing next year amid the market correction. Think people forgot institutions have already financed their expansion, which was a 700M SEK round 100%+ ago (multiple times oversubscribed). And that $SIVE uses primarily external fabs, so it's not the same as a lot of the major financing concerns affecting Neoclouds. Anyway, up to management execution, I'm not running Sivers so no clue what other companies are working with them now, whether it's Cambridge or some other US player like Semtec. TLDR: - Just need to wait for earnings for more disclosures around qualifications + partners, only so much public can guess from channel checks and supplier mapping. Not quite the same as $LITE CEO where you can see the guy on Fox news or Bloomberg interviews every week (which is a good thing)
@calvinblissett 9 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$CCLD questions I have so far for Stephen Synder (CEO) interview if I am missing anything please let me know Charlie Munger famously talked about the importance of distinguishing between technological improvements where the economic benefits “stick to our ribs as owners” and those where “all of the advantages from great improvements are going to flow through to the customers.” (Stripe Press) I think it’s fair to say AI will lower costs overall for the RCM industry for those able to take advantage of it. McKinsey estimates that AI enablement of the revenue cycle could reduce cost to collect by 30% to 60%. (McKinsey & Company) We are already beginning to see this play out: roughly 20% to 40% of organizations report broad or enterprise-wide use of AI-enabled tools across different parts of the revenue cycle, while 70% to 90% of decision-makers expect to increase spending on AI-enabled RCM capabilities over the next three years. (Oliver Wyman) How is this playing out currently, and how do you see it progressing? More specifically, where do you think the economic benefits of AI ultimately accrue? Will AI make the strong stronger and the weak weaker—allowing scaled, technologically capable RCM providers to lower their costs faster and potentially furthering industry consolidation? Or, as AI tools become increasingly commoditized and accessible, could they instead level the playing field and erode some of CareCloud’s existing competitive cost advantage? A bit similar to the last question: Could AI change the dynamic of struggling companies not being able to upgrade products and or win clients. Allowing them to improve and compete hence lowering acquisition opportunities? How much growth aside from obviously inorganic acquisitions is existing customers expanding versus new clinics signing up? Do you think about size when acquiring or is it purely a factor of opportunity and fit. It would seem intuitive smaller acquisitions are easier and cheaper. Is there a pace or target you have in mind regarding acquisitions One shareholder asked for more metrics/metrics with news. Just granularity, Shareholder assumes it will be on earnings call but affects of data breach and portion if any that isn’t covered by insurance. What you’re seeing and anticipate seeing in terms of loss of current customers and momentum in future sales. A majority of the employees are in Pakistan which is currently going through a turbulent time and is basically a junta. Do you think there's any need to de-risk it? I believe the ROI from acquisition is at the midpoint of purchase multiple (.6-1x) and target contribution margin (25-30%) on a full year time frame after 9 months to get there to be About 34%. If your stock had the same FCF yield how would you weight buybacks vs acquisitions. Given the same assumed 34% full year after achieving targets on acquisition In Q2 2026, Hadi said: “OurAI and acquisition strategies have become a single, unified growth engine.” Does that mean that AI strategy/product development has similar economics or is it table stakes and has to be invested in merely to keep up?
@calvinblissett 4 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

LendingTree ($TREE) Upside: ~120% to ~$54. Assumes 7x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance ($148.5 million), less ~$280 million of net debt, across 14.0 million shares. The stock currently trades at about 4x. LendingTree is the largest U.S. online marketplace connecting consumers with lenders and insurers. The stock has fallen 65% from its high, first on a Q2 earnings miss and lowered guidance, then in September on a Wall Street Journal report about Meta’s “Muse” AI agent, which investors fear could let consumers shop for loans and insurance without visiting a marketplace. At $24.43, TREE trades at roughly 4x enterprise value to 2026 EBITDA guidance of $145–152 million. The AI fear overlooks two things. First, insurance is now about two-thirds of revenue ($209 million in Q2, up 42%), paid by carriers buying leads regardless of where the search starts. Second, loan brokering requires state licensing and fraud controls; management notes that ChatGPT and Gemini declined to process loan applications and referred users to marketplaces including LendingTree. Net leverage has fallen from 5.3x in 2023 to 1.9x, removing the balance-sheet risk that once hung over the stock. The disintermediation risk is real, but a 4x multiple prices in a lot of it.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

GAMCO Investors ($GAMI) is the value-investing asset manager founded by Mario Gabelli, with $36.6 billion of AUM. The shares trade at a steep discount largely because of structure, not operations: GAMCO voluntarily left the NYSE for the OTCQX market, which puts it outside most indexes and institutional mandates. Its public float is small, and voting control sits with non-traded Class B shares held by Gabelli’s family entity. At $25.32, GAMCO holds $231 million of cash and investments with no debt, about $11 per share, or more than 40% of the market cap. With Q2 EPS of $1.07 (up from $0.93 on 13% revenue growth), the stock trades at about 6x annualized earnings, and the operating business excluding cash at roughly 3–4x. Part of its AUM sits in closed-end funds, permanent capital that cannot be redeemed, which makes the fee stream stickier than a typical active manager’s. Key-person risk around Mr. Gabelli is real, and the recent addition of Christopher Marangi to the board supports succession.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
VITL · long

Vital Farms INC

Vital Farms is a long idea after bird flu-driven egg supply losses coincided with a structural shift.

VITL $399M
Value Investors Club

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $274M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

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