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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

When I first wrote up Quantum $QMCO on May 6, 2026, at $7.36/share, it traded at ~0.85x EV/Sales. By my August 16 update, where I said I’d look again if its sales multiple gave back part of its re-rate while demand still outran supply, $QMCO was at $26.11. The stock then ran another 32.1% to a $34.50 close on October 2, 2026, a week before $QMCO fired its CFO. At $20.25/share, $QMCO has a market cap of $798.1M and an EV of $825.3M ($902.3M on 44.6M diluted shares - $77.0M of cash, including the $22.6M warrant and option holders would pay to exercise, with no debt). That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak and 3.7x at the $26.11 price in my August update (measured the same way), but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized. So $QMCO isn’t cheap on profits yet, since its adjusted EBITDA margin is still under 10%. The sales multiple has given back part of its re-rate, and by management’s account, demand still outran supply as of the June-quarter call.
@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

𝙀𝙭-𝘼𝙣𝙩𝙚 𝙫𝙨. 𝙀𝙭-𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝘾𝙖𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙨 One of the more important distinctions in catalyst-driven investing is “ex-ante” vs. “ex-post” catalysts (my words). Both can offer significant valuation dislocations, but the mechanics of realizing that value are fundamentally different… “Ex-ante” trades are cleaner. You identify a gap between price and intrinsic value, with an upcoming event (spin-off, asset sale, regulatory decision, etc.) that can force the market to reassess the security. You have a mechanism for value realization and at least (some) visibility into timing. “Ex-post” trades are much harder. Something unexpected happens, investors “shoot first, ask questions later,” and the stock collapses. Deep-value and distressed investors love these situations because the apparent discount to intrinsic value can be enormous. But the event that created the dislocation does absolutely nothing to resolve it. Look at $BAYN, where an identifiable June litigation catalyst helped drive a meaningful rerating. Contrast that with $CODI following its Lugano accounting scandal, where the stock collapsed from the high teens into the single digits. It took months of financial reporting progress, improved visibility, and renewed confidence for the stock to recover even partially. On the flip side, look at $VRRM following its major contract loss, where what initially looked like a massive overreaction was followed by further deterioration, with the stock now at $2.80. The irony is that ex-post trades almost always require a new “mini ex-ante” catalyst to unlock value. Otherwise you’re simply betting that the market eventually recognizes something is cheap. That can take years, and even then the security may never recover anywhere close to its prior valuation. The lesson is that a catalyst creating a valuation gap is not the same as a catalyst closing it. Cheapness is not a catalyst, and the magnitude of a selloff tells you very little about the probability of recovery…

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
SLVM · long

Sylvamo CORP

Sylvamo, a $1.6 billion uncoated freesheet paper producer, has fallen about 60% from its November 2024 high above $95 to roughly $40.

SLVM $1.3B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Short CNM

Core & Main faces a short thesis centered on the risks in its roll-up strategy.

CNM $8.3B
Shallow Dives 1 click

Short LUMN

Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.

LUMN $4.9B
Shallow Dives

Nomad Foods - The Yield Machine

Nomad Foods combines leading European frozen-food brands with a high dividend yield, buybacks and decade-low valuation, while private-label…

NOMD $1.7B
D Invests

TIC Solutions: Thesis Check

TIC Solutions' NV5 merger lifted consulting and geospatial growth and margins, while its 52%-of-revenue inspection unit stayed flat after…

TIC $2.3B
Kairos Research

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