Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting Nov 1 2 clicks

Oct 31 ABR $2.2B

When the liquidity does not add up

John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Oct 31 LIF $3.6B

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Substack von Philipp 3 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd 39h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@ACapitalLP 43h ago 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP 43h ago 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@Fierce__beast Nov 1 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

it's hitting tutors, i wonder if it's a matter of time before it hits online education like $PXED where is the edge, what's the point, will higher ed credential matter that much in 5 years? the thesis for $cour and $udmy was that their claimed value of millions of hours of courses was irreplaceable. that thesis is now broken. $SLM now seems interesting, a very low valuation, but is it a short or long?

@TidefallCapital Nov 1

Trevor Scott on X

@teechongyen $CROX easily takes that one

@orrdavid Oct 31 2 clicks

David Orr on X

Even in that case, the stock could do well for many years because earnings growth drives the return. But since it's now crowded, the risk:reward is completely different. $SFM sold more than it would have if it was uncrowded. If hypothetically it was extremey uncrowded, it might not have sold too hard at all. Normally I avoid crowded stocks like that, but that one seemed lower risk ... whoops!

@partners_road Oct 31 1 click

RiverRoadPartners on X

2 wks into Q3 earnings, at least 4 semis flagged back-end constraints ($TXN, $ALGM, $PI, $NXPI), 2 noted customer push outs ($ALGM, $TER), $INTC noted higher memory prices caused demand destruction in PC’s & $LRCX couldn’t guide for upside b/c of a specialty component shortage.

@leevalueroach Oct 31

Lee Roach on X

Agree. All of the DSPs look very good here. If I didn’t own so much $EVC I would be dogpiling into $APP and $LFTO here. https://t.co/c2R50Tlfts

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

ADT $7.2B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 30 1 click

Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity

Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…

TNGX $3.9B

Terry Chrisomalis Oct 30 2 clicks

This Week in Special Situations: Mattel, Winnebago, PayPal

Mattel, Winnebago and PayPal lead 37 special situations spanning activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and strategic alternatives.

MAT $4.4B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 29 2 clicks

Kratos: Strong Organic Growth And Production Ramp-Ups Support A Buy Rating

Kratos posted Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 30.5% to $458.8 million as unmanned systems, propulsion and defense-electronics production ramps…

KTOS $7.7B

Arizona Equity Research Oct 29

Group 1 Automotive (GPI): Q3 2026 Earnings

Group 1 Automotive trades at 5.5 times earnings as aging gasoline vehicles and EV repairs sustain service profits; insiders bought while…

GPI $3.1B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 28 1 click

Enova International (ENVA): Leading US Online lender with excellent track record

Enova’s Q3 2026 revenue exceeded $1 billion as originations rose 31%, while its failed Grasshopper Bank bid drove a 23% one-day stock…

ENVA $4.3B

Substack von Philipp Oct 28 3 clicks

AppFolio 3Q26 Business Recap: AI Agents Support Growth

AppFolio grew third-quarter revenue 19% as Realm-X AI agents gained adoption, lifting guidance to $1.122 billion to $1.127 billion.

APPF $7.6B

Speedwell Research Oct 27 5 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXIII

Monte Investments updates Carpenter Technology after a 25% sell-off, tracks EQT’s $12.83 billion Range Resources acquisition and assesses…

KRMN $5B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 27 1 click

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.3B

Bearstone Oct 26 8 clicks

Duolingo: The 2027 Bull Case Is Hidden In The Monetization Switch

Duolingo sacrificed over $50 million of 2026 bookings to reduce free-app friction, reaccelerate daily users and target 100 million DAUs by…

DUOL $6.4B

Geneva Investor Oct 26 4 clicks

OKLO · short

Oklo INC

Oklo is framed as a portfolio basket short and a concept company that could become a compounding short.

OKLO $5B

Value Investors Club Jun 5

Short LUMN

Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.

LUMN $4.9B

Shallow Dives Mar 25

✅ Buying AI Beneficiaries and Selling One AI-disrupted Business

Sleep Well Portfolio is selling SPS Commerce as AI-vulnerable and adding Veeva, Mercado Libre, Cellebrite and Sea, citing proprietary data,…

CLBT $3B

Sleep Well Investments Mar 12

Low-Entropy Businesses: Why Some Companies Quietly Endure (Part II)

OMA, Diageo and Alpine railways show how fixed concessions, enduring rituals and irreplaceable geography can create durable operating…

OMAB $4.9B

Ezra's Notes Mar 3

Single Stock Spotlight #3: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has retired more than 30% of its shares since 2022; higher structural metallurgical-coal costs could support…

AMR $2B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Mar 3

Sleep Well Portfolio (Feb 2026) - Software AI risk Assessed

Sleep Well Portfolio cuts SPS Commerce after assessing AI risk across 12 software holdings, finding deterministic, rule-based data…

SPSC $3.1B

Sleep Well Investments Mar 2

Shift4 Company Podcast Episode Released!

Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…

FOUR $3B

Speedwell Memos Feb 19 1 click

The Skills AI Can’t Replace

Duolingo is presented as an AI-resilient opportunity after SaaS stocks sold off on fears that coding tools will compress software moats,…

DUOL $6.4B

Modern Value Investing Feb 15

The Great Rotation: Long Live the Old Economy — Weekly Treasure Hunt #04

Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…

VIST $7.8B

Treasure Hunting Feb 15

FDA vs. HIMS: Why the Oral “Wegovy Copy” Crackdown Changes the GLP-1 Game

FDA’s crackdown on HIMS’s $49 compounded oral Wegovy copy reshapes GLP-1 competition after Novo Nordisk forecast 2026 sales and profit…

HIMS $6.5B

Modern Value Investing Feb 8

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

A Capital on X

A Capital on X

Fierce_beast on X

Trevor Scott on X

David Orr on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Lee Roach on X

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