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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance points to a sharp slowdown.

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

A tape library maker fired its CFO on October 9, 2026, without giving a reason, and its stock is now down 41.3% from its October 2 peak. Within two months, it replaced both of its top finance officers. Yet it still expects to meet or exceed its September-quarter guidance. That company is Quantum $QMCO, which makes tape libraries that companies use to archive data for years. $QMCO has fallen to $20.25/share, down 22.4% since my August update, but still more than double the $9.42 investors paid in its June private placement (PIPE). Worth mentioning that the larger hard drive and flash memory stocks have fallen from their 2026 highs as well, through the October 27 close: → SanDisk $SNDK: Down 44.1% to $1,304.84/share. → Seagate $STX: Down 39.0% to $667.85/share. → Western Digital $WDC: Down 49.0% to $380.88/share. So $QMCO fell about as far as the group, but in under four weeks instead of four months, and mostly after the CFO was fired. Besides the firing, three accounting issues hang over $QMCO’s September-quarter 10-Q, due November 9: 1) Material weaknesses: $QMCO’s June-quarter 10-Q still reports material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) in revenue recognition, inventory, and income taxes. 2) Restatements: None of the weaknesses has led to a material misstatement, but $QMCO has restated its financial statements before, in May 2024 and again in August 2025. 3) Late filings: Its June-quarter 10-Q was officially filed on August 11, a day after its 40-day deadline, and its FY2026 10-K needed a notice of late filing in June. Still, tape demand is growing, and no $QMCO insider has sold since my August update: → Tape: Secondary storage, which $QMCO’s 10-K describes as “primarily tape storage systems,” doubled from a year earlier to $37.0M in the June quarter, 46% of total revenue, up from 29%. → Industry: The LTO Program, the group of $HPE, $IBM, and $QMCO that sets the LTO tape standard, reported on September 1, 2026 that tape capacity shipped in Q1 2026 rose 57% from Q1 2025. → Supply: By CEO Hugues Meyrath’s account, $IBM’s drive supply, not demand, limits how much $QMCO can sell for now. → Insiders: No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn. $QMCO’s EV is $825.3M, counting its warrants, options, and RSUs. That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak, but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized. So is $QMCO’s drop a pullback worth buying, or a warning about the numbers? That’s what I answer in my new update on $QMCO, including my bear, base, and bull cases.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

By my numbers, Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) is worth CAD$0.88-3.08/share before restart capital, depending mostly on Levack, its flagship mine. Here’s what the stock is worth under four Levack outcomes at Q2 margins, before restart capital (the upfront spending to rebuild and reopen the mine): 1) Levack worth nothing: CAD$0.88-1.09/share from cash, McCreedy West (the producing mine), and Crean Hill (the permitted nickel mine), 45-56% below the CAD$1.98 share price (October 23 close). 2) Levack at McCreedy West’s scale: 17M lbs/year is worth ~US$114M, which makes the stock worth CAD$1.35-1.56/share, 21-32% below CAD$1.98. 3) Levack at its study’s plan: The October 7 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) plans 36.8M lbs/year from mid-2028 to 2035, worth ~US$246M, which makes the stock worth CAD$1.90-2.12/share, 4% below to 7% above CAD$1.98. 4) Levack at the top of CEO Jason Jessup’s range (3x McCreedy West): 54M lbs/year is worth ~US$361M, which makes the stock worth ~CAD$2.59/share (+31%) with McCreedy West and Crean Hill at the top of my ranges. With a 10% higher realized price, Levack rises to ~US$479M and the stock to ~CAD$3.08 (+56%). The PEA’s CAD$70.1M of initial capital would take ~CAD$0.21/share off the last three cases, but pre-commercial cash flow and tax credits cut the net funding need to CAD$8.6M (~CAD$0.03/share). On the upside, SCP Resource Finance, a mining-focused investment bank, put a CAD$5.10 target on the stock (+158%) in its April 14 note, before Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group, bought 62.4M new shares at CAD$2.25. Canaccord Genuity $CCORF, a Canadian investment bank, and Desjardins, a Quebec-based financial cooperative, also cover the stock, and both advised Magna on the Alpayana deal. Reaching SCP’s CAD$5.10 would demand ~US$964M from Levack and the rest, ~3.9x Levack’s value at the PEA’s output and Q2 margins. Getting there takes (1) ore from R2, a high-grade zone at Levack, (2) higher metal prices, (3) better margins at Levack than at McCreedy West, or a strong mix of the three.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Back in February I wrote up Sunstock $SSOK, a tiny public company that owned Mom's Silver Shop, a single coin shop in Sacramento. The thesis was simple. The last public financials showed 27,317 oz of silver and 80 oz of gold. At the time, with silver at $113 and gold at $5,340, that was about $3.5M of bullion. The market cap was about $67k. Liabilities were about $753k. Net of those, I got about $2.76M of value, or about $0.45 a share. The catch: the company went dark. In March 2025 it filed a vague late-filing notice, then nothing. The stock moved to the expert market. The shop closed. Someone reached out and told me the prior owner had said the CEO was arrested for fraud and his home and store were raided. I've never been able to confirm that. So it came down to two outcomes. Either the metal is gone or fake and this is a zero, or it's real, authorities have it, and something eventually comes back to shareholders. Where it stands now The metal has gotten cheaper. Silver is around $53 and gold around $4,010. That puts the bullion at about $1.78M. Net of liabilities, about $1.02M, or about $0.17 a share. The stock is quoted around $0.0185, a market cap of about $113k. So it's still about 9x on paper, down from the roughly 40x I wrote about. Most of that move is just silver coming off its highs. All the non-news No SEC filings since the March 2025 notice. Still flagged delinquent. No DOJ press release, no court record, no local news I can find tying the CEO or the company to an arrest, raid, or seizure. No receivership or custodianship filing I've found. One odd data point: in June 2026 the transfer agent verified a new share count, 6,121,873, up 15,000 shares. Small, but someone is still dealing with the transfer agent. That's it. Eight months of silence. So here's the ask If anyone knows anything about $SSOK, Sunstock, or Mom's Silver Shop in Sacramento, I'd love to hear it. Court records, the transfer agent, the former owner, people who used to shop there, anything. Let's see if we can piece this together. DMs are open.

Investor Letters

All letters

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $45M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $15M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks
SAMG · long

Silvercrest Asset Mgt

Silvercrest Asset Management is framed as undervalued while funding an ambitious investment cycle.

SAMG $82M
Value Investors Club

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $22M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks
BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $274M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $75M
Calvin Blissett 11 clicks

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