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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance points to a sharp slowdown.

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The ~$120M of debt TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO expects to use for its planned $357M Texas cell plant is still in “very early stage” talks. $TOYO plans a 1.5 GW heterojunction (HJT) cell plant co-located with the Humble, Texas module plant. HJT is a different cell design from the TOPCon cells $TOYO makes today, and $TOYO later wants to add a layer of perovskite (a second light-absorbing material) on top of its HJT cells to get more power per cell. More importantly, the plant would let $TOYO make most of the cells for its Texas panels in the U.S. instead of importing them from Ethiopia, and $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet (its request for relief from the new 15% U.S. tariff on imported cells) is tied to the plant. $TOYO announced the plant on June 8 at a projected $357M, with pilot production “within 20 months.” By its October 6 Analyst Day, its domestic design was complete, permit applications were ongoing, civil construction was set to start only after all permits are obtained, and pilot production was targeted for Q1 2028. $TOYO plans to fund most of the plant with 45X tax credits (earned on each unit of solar equipment made in the U.S.) and debt. The 45X piece assumes the cell plant runs (cells earn $0.04/W), and the debt is, in the slide’s words, “in the planning stages; no definitive documentation has been signed yet.” CFO Yasunari Harada told analysts on October 6 that talks with Japanese and U.S. lenders were a “very early stage discussion.” As for timing, Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, told a July 29 webinar audience $TOYO was “under construction” on the plant, and the August 19 results of its Japanese parent, Abalance, later put the construction start in April 2027 (planned), consistent with the Analyst Day plan to wait for all permits. So the Texas module plant is running and contracted into 2027, but the cell plant that would make $TOYO’s U.S. supply chain its own is still awaiting permits, with its $120M of debt in early talks.
@stockgutter

SG on X

So you got an LLM to spin out a fancy DCF model for you, or maybe you hacked one together in Excel. How do you account for changes in outstanding shares? Most use a linear assumption. That might work for a company that throws off steady FCF, has limited SBC, and consistently buys back shares. For these, share count often shrinks predictably. But for money losing companies, its usually just a poorly reasoned throw-shit-at-the-wall guess. That's a problem. Dilution is the greatest threat to these names, and Wall Street's DCF models never give it serious contemplation. Example: show me an analyst who modeled in 2024 that $SPCE would 7x its outstanding share count. There are none.

Investor Letters

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SAMG · long

Silvercrest Asset Mgt

Silvercrest Asset Management is framed as undervalued while funding an ambitious investment cycle.

SAMG $82M
Value Investors Club

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $274M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $75M
Calvin Blissett 11 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

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