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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance points to a sharp slowdown.

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

A solar manufacturer that grew revenue 141.5% in 2025 now trades at 2.0x TTM earnings, after falling 77.5% from its June peak. U.S. customs (CBP) has been detaining its Ethiopian cells since May, and Commerce is deciding whether they should pay the duties on Chinese cells, with a first ruling due around December 14. That company is TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO, now at $3.83/share. $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S., and all four are down from their 2026 highs too, as of the October 26 close: → First Solar $FSLR: Down 47.2% to $168.15/share. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ: Down 65.2% to $8.85/share. → JinkoSolar $JKS: Down 72.7% to $8.17/share. → T1 Energy $TE: Down 82.4% to $2.12/share. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. Besides CBP’s detentions and the Ethiopia inquiry, four more overhangs landed after the June peak: 1) Discounted stock sale: $TOYO sold $50M of stock and warrants at $11.00 on June 24, a 14.9% discount to the prior close, and the stock fell 38.8% that day to $7.91. 2) New tariff: An August 6 proclamation set a 15% U.S. tariff on imported solar cells and panels, including $TOYO’s cells from Ethiopia, starting December 4. 3) Guidance dropped: $TOYO didn’t reaffirm its 2026 targets with its H1 results on August 19, when the stock fell 24.2%, and on September 28 only said it expects positive EBITDA for H2 2026. 4) Parent delisted: The Tokyo Stock Exchange delisted Abalance, the Japanese group that controls $TOYO, on September 26. Still, $TOYO is profitable and has net cash: → Earnings: $156.4M of TTM EBITDA and $80.5M of TTM net income. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations in H1 2026, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Balance sheet: Went from a going-concern warning to positive working capital in six months, with $26.4M of net cash as of June 30. → Texas: Doubled its Texas module capacity to 2 GW and signed ~$240M of binding module contracts since mid-June. → Tax credits: Management expects $140M/year of U.S. manufacturing tax credits at full Texas output, 85.6% of $TOYO’s market cap, and leaves those credits out of its forecasts. $TOYO’s EV of $137.2M is just 0.9x its TTM EBITDA. So is $TOYO a profitable non-Chinese cell maker on sale, or is the market right that Ethiopia’s U.S. sales won’t last?
@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

I made a new “It’s All Over” portfolio today of even higher beta names than $AAOI. The requirements: 1. Fell off a cliff 2. Lower than when they announced their catalysts 3. Increasing fundamentals 4. Looks like the chart 5. Short interest spiking Stuff like $ALMU at $7, $CIFR at $8, $ASTS at $39, and some Leopold trades like $TE at $2.5, $SHAZ at $25. Not a recommendation, just curious how this performs into year end while doomposts are everywhere. Anyone got any other ones?
@stockgutter 1 click

SG on X

$ZURA Q3 report looked fine to me. All eyes awaiting H2 readout. Just bought this last week, covered by calls. Options premia were off the charts then and still are quite large (e.g. while the stock was trading 3.36, my net price for the portion I covered with Nov 5C was 2.46. Even less for the portion I covered w Mar 7.5C). I realize readout could occur before Nov expiry and the options reflect the risk of a bad readout. I'm comfortable taking that risk.

Investor Letters

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BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks
EVC · long

Entravision Communications

Entravision Communications, up fourfold year to date, is pitched as an undervalued growth business emerging from a troubled parent…

EVC $588M
Value Investors Club

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $327M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $788M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

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