Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap
Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.
Friday, October 30, 2026
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A Capital on X
Look at $FDXF. A month of underperformance based on “channel checks,” followed by a ~15% move and multiple analyst upgrades after a single session (catalyst day). https://t.co/X81f5cl6Eh https://t.co/FfwGWZlciQ
Barbarian Capital on X
Starbucks sales miss expectations, but its U.S. turnaround is gaining steam $SBUX https://t.co/kPufTMV5zS
Barbarian Capital on X
Reddit stock plunges 30% after weak outlook, heads for worst day ever $RDDT https://t.co/aemPgp56rc
Barbarian Capital on X
BP’s profits surge to new record on high fuel prices $BP https://t.co/bUl30Vb4Ti
DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X
Woah, massive $PESI news out tonight... DOE breaks ground on new cleanup system at Hanford Site - Elkhorn Media Group https://t.co/jYZklPDW4S
SouthernValue on X
Meanwhile @OpenAI pulled IPO and can barely get its latest funding round off. $META and $GOOG will win consumer AI. https://t.co/eqJPtwTTwh
SouthernValue on X
What year will $MSFT take @OpenAI into receivership?
Barbarian Capital on X
CD&R pursues buyout of $40 bn card processor Global Payments $GPN https://t.co/Wil5Zf6xn7
Investor Letters
All letters- Artisan Partners Q3 2026 HDLMY $32BIQV $43B
- Sound Shore Management third quarter of 2026 BP $125BLUV $21B
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- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.7BAMZN $2.9T
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SNY Earnings Review
Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.
SK hynix: Despite Their Premium To The Korean Shares, The U.S. ADRs Are A Bargain
SK hynix's U.S. ADR trades at a valuation discount despite AI-driven memory demand, with 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under long-term…
Adam Schadt 2 clicks
Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts
Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.
Amazon 3Q’26: Trillion Dollar Talks
Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Alphabet's Post-Earnings Selloff Is The Best Buying Opportunity In Years
Alphabet's Google Cloud operating income more than tripled to $11.1 billion, while EPS fell 26% on a $2.76 billion SpaceX paper loss.
Rick Orford 5 clicks
Earnings Review: $AMZN and $LLY
Amazon’s AWS revenue grew 39% to $46B as capex drove negative FCF; Lilly raised 2026 guidance to $91-92B on GLP-1 volume growth.
Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.
Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…
Alphabet: Don’t Search for a Straight Line in Innovation
Alphabet’s Q3 2026 cloud growth stayed strong while Search revenue growth slowed to 12%, with higher AI capital spending driving negative…
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Terry Chrisomalis 2 clicks
GENI · long Genius Sports LTD
Genius Sports, a sports data and adtech provider, is pitched as a re-rating opportunity obscured by acquisition noise.
Sirius XM (An Excerpt From Our Recent Letter)
Sirius XM grew 2025 free cash flow 24% to $1.26 billion as capex peaked, while companion plans revived subscriber additions and debt fell…
$BAX Is Down 80% and Still Not Cheap
Baxter International has fallen 80% yet remains expensive, making it a short candidate.
What XRN's New Proxy Reveals: A $3.5M Severance, a Shrinking Board, and a CEO Who Keeps Buying
Chiron Real Estate’s proxy details Jeff Busch’s $3.5 million exit, a six-member board split evenly between independent and non-independent…
Under The Hood, ResMed ($RMD)
ResMed’s 30 million connected sleep-apnea patients, recurring masks and software support a data-driven healthcare platform; 11.9% annual…
Small FPGAs, Big Problems: The Looming Identity Crisis for Lattice ($LSCC)
Lattice Semiconductor faces an identity crisis in small FPGAs, with a short thesis on $LSCC.
Performance & Portfolio Update: Q1 2026
Portfolio update reports a 20.5% Q1 loss, led by WeightWatchers’ 61% decline, while adding Bumble, Oscar and Shift4.
Single Stock Spotlight #6: Huntsman (HUN)
Huntsman’s $800-$900 million mid-cycle EBITDA and 8-10x historical EV/EBITDA imply $30-$40 per share, versus roughly $13, after a chemicals…
Bread Financial ($BFH): When You Outsource Everything Except the Downside
Bread Financial is a short thesis centered on outsourcing operations while retaining downside risk.
Three Transactions in 48 Hours: ESRT Is Reshaping the Portfolio
Empire State Realty Trust bought a vacant $46 million Williamsburg retail property and refinanced 10 Union Square East with a $53.5…
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