Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap
Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.
Friday, October 30, 2026
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Look at $FDXF. A month of underperformance based on “channel checks,” followed by a ~15% move and multiple analyst upgrades after a single session (catalyst day). https://t.co/X81f5cl6Eh https://t.co/FfwGWZlciQ
Barbarian Capital on X
Starbucks sales miss expectations, but its U.S. turnaround is gaining steam $SBUX https://t.co/kPufTMV5zS
Barbarian Capital on X
Reddit stock plunges 30% after weak outlook, heads for worst day ever $RDDT https://t.co/aemPgp56rc
Barbarian Capital on X
BP’s profits surge to new record on high fuel prices $BP https://t.co/bUl30Vb4Ti
SouthernValue on X
Meanwhile @OpenAI pulled IPO and can barely get its latest funding round off. $META and $GOOG will win consumer AI. https://t.co/eqJPtwTTwh
SouthernValue on X
What year will $MSFT take @OpenAI into receivership?
Barbarian Capital on X
CD&R pursues buyout of $40 bn card processor Global Payments $GPN https://t.co/Wil5Zf6xn7
Barbarian Capital on X
"higher sales and recent cost-savings efforts weren’t able to fully offset steeper-than-expected inflation." $NWL Newell Brands Swings to Loss Despite Higher Sales https://t.co/WPRdY3lzz3
Investor Letters
All letters- Artisan Partners Q3 2026 HDLMY $32BIQV $43B
- Sound Shore Management third quarter of 2026 BP $125BLUV $21B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 CLVT $1.4BAAP $2.9B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.7BAMZN $2.9T
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 BOIVF $12BAVOL $8.1B
- Broyhill Asset Management third quarter 2026 CACI $15BGOOGL $3.4T
- Fairtree Asset Management Q3 2026 SSL $11B
- Alluvial Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 BSVN $553MGDOT $703M
SNY Earnings Review
Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.
SK hynix: Despite Their Premium To The Korean Shares, The U.S. ADRs Are A Bargain
SK hynix's U.S. ADR trades at a valuation discount despite AI-driven memory demand, with 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under long-term…
Adam Schadt 2 clicks
Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts
Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.
Amazon 3Q’26: Trillion Dollar Talks
Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Alphabet's Post-Earnings Selloff Is The Best Buying Opportunity In Years
Alphabet's Google Cloud operating income more than tripled to $11.1 billion, while EPS fell 26% on a $2.76 billion SpaceX paper loss.
Rick Orford 5 clicks
Earnings Review: $AMZN and $LLY
Amazon’s AWS revenue grew 39% to $46B as capex drove negative FCF; Lilly raised 2026 guidance to $91-92B on GLP-1 volume growth.
Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.
Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…
Alphabet: Don’t Search for a Straight Line in Innovation
Alphabet’s Q3 2026 cloud growth stayed strong while Search revenue growth slowed to 12%, with higher AI capital spending driving negative…
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Terry Chrisomalis 2 clicks
IQV · long Iqvia Holdings INC
IQVIA runs drug trials and gets paid regardless of whether drugs pass, while trading at a COVID-low multiple with potential AI benefits.
Weekend Digest #345 (Colombia Election, AUNA, BRKR, China & EM Risk)
Weekend Digest #345 previews Colombia’s presidential vote, tracks AUNA’s earnings momentum and Bruker’s recovery, and weighs China risk…
Tractor Supply: A Yield Worth Harvesting
Tractor Supply, the 2,641-store rural lifestyle retailer, is pitched as an undervalued defensive compounder, supported by recurring…
Natera: Is the Future Worth Paying up for?
Natera's long-term future is weighed against its current valuation.
The Formula Hiding in Plain Sight
Spotify’s 761 million MAUs and investor-day formula explain how it holds off Apple, Amazon and YouTube Music despite their loss-leader…
The Dynamics of Inventories, Demand, Friendships, and Risk
Nvidia’s 14th straight beat-and-raise came with a clean balance sheet, while inventory risk tied to Blackwell GPUs has shifted elsewhere.
A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…
Adobe Deep Dive
Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…
NVIDIA: The AI Factory Is Still Undervalued
NVIDIA reported $81.6 billion revenue, $75 billion data-center sales and $49 billion free cash flow, then weighs custom chips, hyperscalers…
TIC Solutions Update: New performance framework and a path to $26+ per share.
TIC targets $3 billion of 2029 revenue, 18% adjusted EBITDA margin and 85% free cash flow conversion, requiring roughly $400 million of…
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