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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@pennycheck 1 click

⚽️📡 on X

$BFLY earnings thoughts Overall very pleased. Numbers were excellent double beat and raise with record gross margins --- This despite weakness in int'l sales due to lumpiness and weakness from sales team but happy to hear on the call they are very aggressively working to switch their int'l sales model to the us based one which focuses mainly on large enterprise deals . The fact they had such strong numbers despite int'l weakness is promising. embedded rev which is the real growth driver is ramping - went from practically zero to over 11 million but they didnt disclose exact contribution to that was from mid journey 15 new contracts in the last Q for compass AI ten 7 figure deals five 6 figure deals ! also most noteable for the data moat compass in getting up to 80% of all scans in some hospitals vastly improving the ai data moat All the near term catalysts are on track home + CC rev is already starting in Q4 w/partners already wanting to expand to bladder and spesis scans. P5.1 next gen chip/probe on track to start shipping early 27 as well expanding into icu and cardiology verticals highlighted near term opportunities non medical / wearables already shipping to embedded partners some really interesting commentary on fed ramp approval and some very large potential opportunities. most interesting thing for me personally on the call was they referenced around 7 times that the next big "mid-journey" type of deal was coming soon. thesis fully intact on this one of one. $SILC earnings thoughts Overall solid but disappointed by lack of color on the cyber security refresh cycle. Solid EPS beat slight revenue beat + raise return to profitability earlier than forecasted and mentioned on call expect that to accelerate in Q4 seems like a interesting upcoming catalyst "in final discussions with a new customer on a “major evolving use case” and expect agreement imminently" design wins ahead of schedule although bearish flag that one inference partner left due to a change in strategy which i think is main cause for weakness today but if this next deal is as imminent as they imply investor confidence should return. other bearish flag is inventory remains quite elevated at 73M but they did mention on call they expect refreshes coming soon from core cyber security biz unfortunate that there was only one analyst in the q + a so didn't get a ton of color i really would of loved to know more about this cyber security refresh and it was only adressed in passing due to the analyst question but in general with near term catalyst as well as continued healthy rev growth and return to non-gaap profitability stock feels cheap here
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

First Solar $FSLR trades at 6.7x TTM EBITDA and 10.4x TTM net income, while TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO trades at just 0.9x and 2.0x. At $3.83/share, $TOYO has a market cap of $163.6M and an EV of $137.2M ($163.6M + $25.7M of bank loans + $51.4M owed to VSUN, an affiliate - $103.5M of cash). It trades at 0.9x TTM EBITDA of $156.4M, 2.0x TTM net income of $80.5M, and 0.78x its $209.8M of book value. Since 80.7% of its H1 revenue came from U.S. end customers, $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S. (TTM multiples as of the October 26 close): → First Solar $FSLR (U.S. thin-film panel maker): 6.7x EV/EBITDA, 10.4x P/E, 1.75x P/B, and down 47.2% from its 2026 high. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ (panel and battery storage maker): 18.8x EV/EBITDA, a net loss, 0.22x P/B, and down 65.2%. → JinkoSolar $JKS (China-based panel maker): A net loss, 0.19x P/B, and down 72.7%. → T1 Energy $TE (Texas panel assembler building a U.S. cell plant): Negative EBITDA, a net loss, 2.95x P/B, and down 82.4%. So the market prices $TOYO’s earnings at 0.9x EBITDA, less than a seventh of First Solar’s 6.7x, a multiple that only makes sense if the four U.S. trade actions on its Ethiopian cells wipe out most of those earnings. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. I was originally going to write up T1 Energy until I found $TOYO, which offers a more attractive setup mainly because (1) it’s profitable, with $80.5M of TTM net income vs. T1’s $367.8M net loss, (2) it trades at 0.78x book vs. T1’s 2.95x, and (3) it has $26.4M of net cash vs. T1’s $629.2M of net debt.
@convequity

Convequity on X

In our view, distributors may have accumulated inventory because they expected shortages, and that inventory could add supply and pressure memory prices, though we have not verified the reports. Disk use in one of our agent environments has been heavy. That is evidence of storage demand. It tells us little about how much DRAM or HBM the models need while running. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. Reports of large distributor inventories, which we have not verified, raise another risk: distributors could sell down stock accumulated in anticipation of shortages, adding supply and putting further pressure on prices. We hold $LRCX for manufacturing equipment, $RMBS for memory interfaces, and $SNDK for storage and high-bandwidth flash. These give us several ways to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.

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