Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Back to today

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8 million of operating cash.

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

On December 4, TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO Ethiopian cells start paying a 15% U.S. tariff, unless Commerce approves its request for relief. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 lets the U.S. president restrict imports that threaten national security. On August 6, 2026, a proclamation added a 15% tariff, from December 4, on the ingots, wafers, cells, and modules made from polysilicon, for Ethiopia and most other countries, plus minimum import prices of $0.22 per watt (/W) for cells and $0.38/W for modules. The proclamation also created an onshoring program, run by Commerce, that grants relief to companies building U.S. polysilicon, wafer, or cell plants, as long as construction under an approved plan begins by January 20, 2029. Section 232 helps $TOYO’s Texas panels but hurts its Ethiopian cells: 1) Texas modules: Imported panels will face the $0.38/W minimum import price from December 4, above the $0.33/W average in Q2 2026 for U.S. utility-scale modules, per the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. 2) Ethiopian cells: $TOYO’s cells are imports too, so from December 4, 2026, they pay the 15% tariff and must clear the $0.22/W minimum price. Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said at its October 6 Analyst Day that using Ethiopian cells means $TOYO’s Texas panels are “not a purely U.S. product,” and that $TOYO has presented Commerce a term sheet for onshoring relief tied to its planned Texas cell plant, though he said many such agreements probably won’t come until after December 4. Notably, Jeffrey Kessler, Commerce’s Under Secretary for Industry and Security, praised $TOYO at its October 6 ribbon-cutting in Texas for “committing to use exclusively US polysilicon,” and his department approves onshoring plans. Still, 30% of the polysilicon in $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells comes from Malaysia. CEO Takahiko Onozuka said on the Q2 call that $TOYO anticipates its Ethiopian cells “will be eligible for the relief under the framework now taking shape.” But he also said in the August 19 release that $TOYO expects an impact on its H2 2026 results, “though the magnitude is not yet certain.” So Section 232 should lift prices for $TOYO’s Texas panels, but it taxes the Ethiopian cells those panels are made from unless Commerce approves $TOYO’s term sheet. I won’t be comfortable with Section 232 until Commerce approves the term sheet, and Resch expects many such agreements only after the tariff starts on December 4.
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

I have no horse in the race, but I don't get why $MNRO bulls are so surprised by the market's reaction to a quarter as shitty as this one, especially after Monro brought in a “turnaround specialist” and closed a bunch of underperforming stores. By now, I don't think anyone disputes that the company is in play, with Icahn and Gabelli pushing for a sale. That said, I'd guess Mavis is still digesting the Pep Boys acquisition, and there aren't all that many buyers willing and able to pay up for a deal like this. With interest expenses set to rise further in 2027, net debt rising, and operating performance this poor, it seems potential buyers can afford to wait a lot longer than Monro can. And that's hardly the position you want to be negotiating from. Lastly, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't buy the hard-asset downside protection argument either. Sure, they own some of their store real estate, but its value doesn't come close to covering what the market is valuing the company at today. I think there's a decent chance a transaction happens, which is why I'm following the situation. But until there's some sign of an operational turnaround, the bet seems pretty binary to me. So I wanted to see if there's something I'm overlooking, or if you're simply more willing than I am to take the risk of "no deal."

Investor Letters

All letters

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $43M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $15M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks
ABSSF · long

Airboss Of America CORP

AirBoss is a large North American rubber producer moving away from its existing business mix.

ABSSF $124M
Value Investors Club 1 click

RI(N)sing higher

RIN prices near all-time highs reflect tighter renewable-fuel mandates, a shrinking credit bank, and biodiesel production shortfalls.

FF $254M
Treasure Hunting 4 clicks

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $639M
Mispriced Assets

Quick Value #322 - FuboTV (FUBO)

Fubo's Hulu Live merger leaves Disney with 70% ownership and resets its 2028 EBITDA target to $300 million; at $10, it trades at 4.2 times…

FUBO $831M
Value Don't Lie

What Amazon Can't Buy

Betterware de Mexico sells locally designed home organizers through direct sellers in informal neighborhoods, generating 67% gross margins;…

BWMX $675M
Phynvesting 1 click

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $380M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 67 of 268

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

190 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.