Thursday, October 29, 2026

This Week in Special Situations: Mattel, Winnebago, PayPal

Mattel, Winnebago and PayPal lead 37 special situations spanning activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and strategic alternatives.

MAT $4.4B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 29 2 clicks

Oct 28 GPI $3.1B

Group 1 Automotive (GPI): Q3 2026 Earnings

Cannibal Stocks 1 click

Oct 28 ENVA $4.3B

Enova International (ENVA): Leading US Online lender with excellent track record

Substack von Philipp 3 clicks

From X

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 29

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

More $CUBE news Sold 80% to Heitman in a JV valued $197mm at a roughly mid 5% cap rate and used proceeds to buy back better assets like those in NYC in that 6.3% to 6.5% cap rate range Improves quality and sell non-core at lower cap rate than higher quality assets Retains management and builds annuity mgt fee stream

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 29

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

I have consistently talked about buying $CUBE in the past year and highlighted their incredible NYC/NNJ portfolio It accounts for 1/4 of the company's NOI, up 5.5% in Q3 on a YOY basis. Moves the needle. Overall NOI up 2.1% YOY High barrier, no rent regs like housing, truly a great asset NOI declines mostly in Sunbelt high supply markets Story is as old as time Bought at a rough 6.7% cap about a year ago at $36 ish now $41.08 plus about $2.12 in dividends since Not too shabby for a 20% one year return for buying a high quality SS with low leverage

@orrdavid Oct 29

David Orr on X

$PURR https://t.co/yeJJ2cHVeE

@stockgutter Oct 29

SG on X

$CAKE execs are sellers into the political hype. Form 144s filed today indicate ~$3m of sales. https://t.co/3UrKd4AXRe

@stockgutter Oct 29

SG on X

$COLM Columbia Sportswear is the latest apparel manufacturer to post a good report. Per market pulse, the apparel manufacturers overall are up 15.43% over the past month. Np in Columbia but I own $VFC (North Face) and others. https://t.co/jGMxLBridY

@david_katunaric Oct 29

Mikro Kap David on X

Well timed by insiders. $HOG turnaround going better than I thought it would. https://t.co/MnY4WBAEQY

@david_katunaric Oct 29

Mikro Kap David on X

For anyone chasing yield while everyone seems bearish on duration, I noticed that $VNO preferreds are currently yielding >8.2%, while Manhattan office leasing activity is at its strongest level since 2000. At the same time, I struggle to see credit risk here. The sector seems to have weathered the worst of the downturn, Vornado's balance sheet looks more than capable of handling its corporate debt obligations, and several major refinancings are now behind it. Personally, my hurdle is higher, and as a 🇭🇷 investor, the currency risk and 30% US dividend withholding tax make the setup much less attractive to me. But I figured it was worth sharing for anyone looking for income opportunities.

@AsifSuria Oct 29

Asif Suria on X

This has been a very active week for M&A activity with 6 new deals announced and half of them over $10 billion in size. The largest spread is for the acquisition of Maplebear (the weird name for Instacart) $CART by DoorDash $DASH with the deal trading for a 11% discount to the acquisition price. Considering what happened with the merger of the uniform rental companies UniFirst $UNF and Cintas this week and Mayor Mamdani's comments about the Instacart acquisition, it is not going to be easy for DoorDash to get this deal to the finish line.

AppFolio 3Q26 Business Recap: AI Agents Support Growth

AppFolio grew third-quarter revenue 19% as Realm-X AI agents gained adoption, lifting guidance to $1.122 billion to $1.127 billion.

APPF $7.6B

Speedwell Research Oct 27 5 clicks

TTM Technologies: The Market Already Caught On To Peak Numbers

TTM Technologies’ record Q3 and data-center exposure drove a 27.7% stock drop as investors questioned debt-funded growth, leverage and the…

TTMI $8.6B

Nicolas Bolsinger Oct 27 1 click

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXIII

Monte Investments updates Carpenter Technology after a 25% sell-off, tracks EQT’s $12.83 billion Range Resources acquisition and assesses…

KRMN $5B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 27 1 click

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.3B

Bearstone Oct 26 8 clicks

Duolingo: The 2027 Bull Case Is Hidden In The Monetization Switch

Duolingo sacrificed over $50 million of 2026 bookings to reduce free-app friction, reaccelerate daily users and target 100 million DAUs by…

DUOL $6.4B

Geneva Investor Oct 26 4 clicks

Signet Jewelers (SIG): The Next Dillard’s?

Signet Jewelers cut its share count from 87 million to 38 million since 2012 as short interest reaches 15%, amid a hated diamond market.

SIG $4.4B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 25 20 clicks

I went through all 142 companies in Value Line this morning. Here are the 6 that made it

Six Value Line small caps including Blackbaud, Marqeta, Ranger Energy and Definitive Healthcare trade on net cash, buybacks, low multiples…

BLKB $2.4B

Calvin Blissett Oct 24 81 clicks

ExlService: A Boring Compounder That Could Double

EXLService's AI-led business, 61% of revenue and growing 30% year over year, trades at 18 times forward earnings after legacy digital…

EXLS $6.3B

Ignacio Planas Gonzalez Oct 24 4 clicks

Oscar Health: Up Over 200% From The March Lows, Still Room To Run (Ticker: OSCR)

Oscar Health raised 2026 operating earnings guidance to $600 million-$800 million after ACA-marketplace expansion drove 60% membership and…

OSCR $9.4B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 23 5 clicks

Trade Alert - Long RIG

HFI Portfolio bought 94,214 shares of Transocean, RIG, for $570,000 at $6.05 per share.

RIG $7.4B

HFI Research Oct 22 10 clicks

QTWO · long

Q2 Holdings INC (qtwo)

Q2 Holdings sells banking software to more than 1,200 financial institutions and 27.8 million registered users, after selling off with…

QTWO $4.2B

Value Investors Club Jun 5

Our Q1 2026 Letter & Look Ahead: Oil, Iran, OXY & PTON

Open Square Capital’s Q1 2026 letter discusses the oil market, Iran, Occidental Petroleum and Peloton.

PTON $2.4B

Open Insights Apr 17

Under The Hood, Pool Corporation - $POOL

Pool Corporation controls roughly 40% of US pool-product distribution, with maintenance representing 64% of sales as new-pool construction…

POOL $7B

Bearhold Research Apr 17 2 clicks

Hilton Grand Vacations ($HGV): 17 Years of Inventory on Hand That No One Is Questioning

Hilton Grand Vacations faces scrutiny over 17 years of inventory on hand, with the thesis calling for a short position.

HGV $3B

Shallow Dives Apr 15

Capitulation in packaged food consumer staples?

Conagra’s CEO change and 9% yield intensified a packaged-food selloff, while General Mills trades near historical valuation lows despite…

CAG $6.6B

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Apr 13 1 click

Sirius XM (An Excerpt From Our Recent Letter)

Sirius XM grew 2025 free cash flow 24% to $1.26 billion as capex peaked, while companion plans revived subscriber additions and debt fell…

SIRI $9.2B

Eagle Point Capital Apr 11

Performance & Portfolio Update: Q1 2026

Portfolio update reports a 20.5% Q1 loss, led by WeightWatchers’ 61% decline, while adding Bumble, Oscar and Shift4.

OSCR $9.4B

Modern Value Investing Apr 8

Bread Financial ($BFH): When You Outsource Everything Except the Downside

Bread Financial is a short thesis centered on outsourcing operations while retaining downside risk.

BFH $3.9B

Shallow Dives Apr 7

AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics

AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.

AXTI $3.6B

Maius Partners Apr 2 7 clicks

Cracks in the Coconuts: Why Vita Coco’s ($COCO) Growth Narrative is Spoiling

Vita Coco’s growth narrative is deteriorating, supporting a short thesis on COCO.

COCO $3.3B

Shallow Dives Apr 2

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

David Orr on X

SG on X

SG on X

Mikro Kap David on X

Mikro Kap David on X

Asif Suria on X

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