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@kevin__mak 3 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

$CORZ Some quick notes on this one. 1) In my view, CORZ has the most economically advantaged deal in the entire HPC industry. Their series of ~590mw of deals with CRWV was heavily tilted in their favor, and no deal after that has the same terms. 2) That deal is 70%+ finished construction, so there's no "if they get it built", it's largely built and should be fully built by early 2027. 3) According to CFO Jim Nygaard, the CRWV infrastructure cost $5.5B but would cost $7.5B to rebuild today, and CORZ holds the first lien. I call this a “capex put,” because IF there’s a problem with CRWV paying its contracts, CORZ has a claim on substantial infrastructure that could be re-leased to another customer. Depending on assumptions (discount rate, terminal value, etc), I see this as being worth $10-$13 per share in todays terms. They still have a ~530MW deal with AMD, plus another 1.5GW of "future expansion". The upside of CORZ is not the same as the other HPC/neocloud type plays. There's very little/no scenarios where I can see this stock going up by 5-10x. But the downside scenario is also very different. This is significantly less risky than its peers, yet, in this indiscriminate "vibes/basket" based market, it often trades very similarly. There lies the opportunity. When the market treats different assets as the same, because nobody cares about the nuance anymore. Positioning: I sold all of my shares between $20-$26 per share and thought I was done with CORZ forever. It's a pleasant surprise to be able to buy them back sub $15. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds positions in CORZ. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

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